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11 Weeks Away: 1.09.03 12 Weeks Away: 1.02.03 13 Weeks Away: 12.26.02 14 Weeks Away: Part 2 14 Weeks Away: Part I 15 Weeks Away: 12.12.02

January 16, 2002

10 Weeks Away

Time to get out the crying rags…

All the studios still in play are scrambling around the upcoming weekend. Talent swarmed New York these last few days, turning up for the NYFCC Awards dinner and the NBR dinner. Friday night, the BFCA gives out their awards. (You can watch the event on E! on Saturday night.) And Sunday night, The Golden Globes.

The funny thing is, everyone already knows that only two films can win “Best Picture” awards, and that given the way the HFPA set up the Musical/Comedy section, if Chicago doesn’t win, the ground under the Beverly Hilton will open up and the Globes guests will be invited to go skating at the Hades outdoor ice rink. (Let’s have a show of hands of people who would pay to see Jeff Blake, Harvey Weinstein and Jonathan Dolgen on skates.)

But no one should make the mistake of assuming that The Golden Globes answer all Oscar questions. I don’t expect The Pianist to win a single award, yet if it can hang on to take an Oscar nomination, it could shock everyone and upset Chicago. Antwone Fisher’s not even going to the Globes, but it is still a serious Oscar candidate. About A Boy and Adaptation aren’t taking any Golden Globes home, except perhaps for Best Adapted Screenplay, but they are both still in the Oscar game.

Speaking of Adaptation, I got a surprising e-mail just last night…

-----Original Message-----
From: BrainFactory@genius-squared.com
Sent: Wednesday, January 15, 2003 10:26 PM
To: david@moviecitynews.com
Subject: I’m Not Dead!

Dear Mr. Polland,

I’ve been holding my piece for a long time, but I couldn’t remain silent any more. It was bad enough that Charles had people convinced that I was dead. Mom didn’t believe it was me until we were both home for Turkey Day. But when you wrote that I don’t even exist, I had to speak out.

I exist. I am alive and well and living in L.A. I’m on my own now. I rented a room in Brett Ratner’s place, so you know that there is plenty of bungle in the jungle. I have first-look deals at three studios and am expecting a green light just as soon as some of that German money gets loose. I came close with my Batman Vs. Bugs Bunny project at Warner Bros., but then Harry Knowles (who is also real) fired Lorenzo. I think that Al Horn has cooled on the Pluto Nash 2 thing too. As Jerry Weintraub says, “Fuck `em.”

I’m also working as a doctor. Not a real doctor. A script doctor. I thought not getting credit was cool, but it’s kind of hurting my feelings now. I’ve gotten a reputation round Orso as a guy who can write women. I was the one who wrote Salma Hayek’s boobies in Frida. They changed that “sex on the train” scene I wrote in Unfaithful as a kind of a Risky Business meets Chariots of Fire thing. I loved Di in that film. They kind of ruined it by taking the guy out of it, but the Golden Globe people liked it almost as much as the free champagne we sent. And my old pal Cat Keener was great in that “Tell me what’s wrong with my body” scene I wrote for Lovely & Amazing.

It’s not that hard to write. It’s like I always tell Charles, just get on with it. David Mamet says, “You tax the audience every time you don’t move on to the next essential step of the progression as quickly as possible.” Mamet is amazing! He’s inspired me to become a multi-hyphenate. I’m going to direct The 4, the sequel to The 3, even though they never made The 3. And I’m considering acting in it too. I like Nicholas Cage and all, but I want people to know that I have a lot more hair than that. And my back is all better now that I am doing Power Kabalah Pilates four times a week.

My agent Marty says he’d fuck himself in the ass if we got an Oscar nomination. He knows that Charles is a kind of genius, even if he did write those first two acts of Adaptation that confused everybody. If he had only put in a few more butt shots (great advice from Kevin Costner), we’d be a shoe-in. Look what Clooney and Sam Rockwell did with that weird Confessions of A Dangerous Mind script! Rockwell’s butt is all over that thing and even the snooty intellectual critics like Richard Roeper gave it a thumbs up!

I just want you and everyone else to know that I am real. I’m really upset that I wasn’t invited to be at the National Board of Review dinner, though people keep telling me that they don’t really exist. I’ve already got a place picked out for my Oscar… one that makes it seem like I don’t care. Cy Bianco is dressing me for all the award shows. And I’m ready.

So stop telling people that I don’t exist, dude. I’m as real as anyone else in Hollywood. Regis & Kelly Lee here I come!

The Donald

--------------------------

Maybe I was wrong. I guess we will see the real Donald Kaufman come Oscar time.

My guesses at Golden Globes winners are:

BEST MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
The Hours

BEST ACTRESS/DRAMA
Nicole Kidman, The Hours

BEST ACTOR/DRAMA
IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Chicago

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

BEST ACTOR -MUSICAL/COMEDY
Richard Gere, Chicago

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Talk To Her

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, Gangs Of New York

BEST SCREENPLAY
David Hare, The Hours

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - MOTION PICTURE
Elliot Goldenthal, Frida

BEST ORIGINAL SONG - MOTION PICTURE
“Lose Yourself”- 8 Mile

The ballots are out and, God knows, no Academy members are sitting by the TV waiting to see what the HFPA does. But the studios that blink on Monday morning… they will be the real losers.

Even before they leave the Hilton on Sunday night, some studios will have decided how much more they will bet on their potential Oscar nominees. 4 or 5 Globes wins for Chicago will push out some of the folks who don’t care about Oscar nominations so much as wins.

Focus Features will have the toughest choices, since they are a small company with two films that will continue to have serious nomination opportunities regardless of the Globes. If Chris Cooper takes Best Supporting Actor away from Dennis Quaid, it does not mean that his ride is over. Likewise, The Pianist is a powerful player, so to speak, even if The Hours outdoes it on Sunday night.

Columbia shouldn’t be giving up on Donald or Charlie or Nic or Spike or Chris or Meryl, even if the Golden Globes do.

Will New Line take two Best Picture nominations? It could happen. Focus could, too, though Far From Heaven is one of the fast droppers of the last few weeks. The Hours OR Far From Heaven… not both. As Julianne goes, so go the nominations… kind of.

DGA nominations arrive on Tuesday. They will make a difference.

But the real Oscar test coming out of the Golden Globes is not the wins, but the reactions. I’ll be back with another temperature check next week. (And I’ll be covering the weekend of awards in The Hot Button on Monday.)

The next edition of 15 Weeks to Oscar will appear next Thursday.

EMAIL DAVID POLAND