The Weekend Report: February 7, 2010

Romance trumped visceral thrills as the three-hanky Dear John debuted at the top of weekend viewing charts with an estimated $32.7 million. The session’s other new national premiere From Paris with Love settled into position three with $8.1 million.

Regional openers saw a solid bow of $232,000 for Les Sept jours du Talion in Quebec while the 106 theater launch of the horror yarn Frozen fizzled with a $127,000 tally. The fame also had a number of notable exclusive bows including Israel Oscar finalist Ajami with a $33,600 gross from three venues and the epic Red Riding Trilogy generating $15,500 at a Manhattan solo.

There was also copious activity among Oscar nominees with re-launches and expansions across the board. However, the only significant beneficiary in the award’s scrum was Crazy Heart.

Overall box office, despite the unexpected commerciality of the weekend leader, took a dip from both last weekend and 52 weeks ago.

Pundits had pegged Dear Heart, based on the Nicholas Sparks bestseller, as a good second to Avatar with estimates in the neighborhood of $20 million despite torrid pre-sales on the nation’s advance sellers. The romance set in the shadow of 9/11 weaved an effective mix of emotion and patriotism; pulling in an audience that was 61% under the age of 25 according to exit polls. That bodes well for the film’s second weekend with its obvious appeal to older demographics.

Tracking also over-valued the bow of the high octane action-thriller From Paris with Love. It was expected to open in the $10 - $12 million range and even factoring in inclement weather had to be viewed as an under-performer.

Crippling snowstorms had their most extreme impact in the Washington D.C. area where box office dropped close to 90% on Friday and Saturday box office. That likely cost Dear John about $2 million and $10 million in overall sales for the frame.

Weekend revenues generated roughly $118 million that translated into an 8% downturn from seven days earlier. There was a more severe 25% erosion from 2009 when the opening of He’s Just Not That Into You led with $27.8 million with new entries Coraline and The Pink Panther 2 slotting third and fourth with respective grosses of $16.million and $11.6 million.

The expansion of Academy Award best picture nominees to 10 did nothing to reverse the past decades experience of a fading Oscar bump. Admittedly the only contender (and ironically not for the top prize) positioned to benefit from the hoopla was Crazy Heart. Still, An Education, Precious, The Hurt Locker and even Up in the Air added playdates but each failed to generate new momentum or enthusiasm.

The media has largely invented a competition between Avatar and The Hurt Locker based on wish rather than evidence. Matters haven’t been helped by the latter film’s almost unerring marketing and distribution gaffes that have translated into a $13.3 million domestic gross and an even more anemic $6 million internationally. Certainly based on critical response the film should have expected comparable grosses to Crash, Monster’s Ball or current Oscar nominee Precious.

-by Leonard Klady