..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

March 8, 2009 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share A Watchmen Pot Boils Propelled by the debut of Watchmen, domestic box office rose by 12% from 2008. The adaptation of the acclaimed graphic novel opened to an estimated $56.7 million and accounted for roughly 50% of all movie ticket sales on its opening weekend. The Watchmen saga – at least in regard to its tortured journey to the screen – is 1) worthy of a frank, unvarnished documentary recap and 2) likely to have several more chapters to play out over pending legal wrangles. The first wave of its theatrical life is unquestionably dynamic. Others had struggled to adapt the material for the movies with thoughts of a two-parter or updating the material to a contemporary setting. Ultimately the single film (albeit 2 hours, 40 minutes) without benefit of marquee names was risky business and reported tepid response at early previews couldn’t have made studio execs happy in these recessionary times. Tracking and advance ticket sales were also unremarkable up until a week prior to the movie’s release. Then it was like the floodgates opened and the downplayed expectations ramped up. There was still considerable caution in light of last week’s over-confident prognosis of The Jonas Brothers concert film. No one was predicting more than a $50 million debut and most underplayed it closer to $40 million. The bottom line is that it’s a good start for Watchmen with unquestionably a lot of hurdles ahead simply to cover costs. The fan base not atypically went to midnight sneaks and opening day shows and business eased up as the weekend advanced. A 50% drop next weekend would be another good sign; more than 66% would be worrisome. Batman notwithstanding, most superhero/fantasy special effects movies have grossed better internationally. And the commercial embrace outside North America appears to be unrelated to the familiarity with the source inspiration. Regardless of how Watchmen is ultimately perceived, it’s likely the majors won’t be introducing many if any new big budget ventures with franchise potential. The tempo of the times in an already risk-averse industry is hunker down and wait out the storm. - Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates: March 6 - 8, 2009 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume Watchmen WB 56.7 (15,690) - 3611 56.7 Madea Goes to Jail Lions Gate 8.7 (4,040) -46% 2151 76.4 Taken Fox 7.4 (2,460) -25% 3016 118 Slumdog Millionaire Fox Searchlight 6.9 (2,380) -43% 2890 125.4 Paul Blart: Mall Cop Sony 4.2 (1,650) -25% 2558 133.7 He's Just Not That Into You WB 4.0 (1,650) -33% 2445 84.7 Coraline Focus 3.3 (1,670) -38% 1959 65.6 Confessions of a Shopaholic BV 3.1 (1,360) -33% 2290 38.4 Jonas Brothers Concert  BV 2.8 (2,220) -77% 1276 16.8 Fired Up Sony 2.6 (1,460) -29% 1798 13.4 Gran Torino WB 2.1 (1,360) -32% 1520 141.6 The Reader Weinstein Co. 1.9 (1,590) -35% 1175 29.8 Friday the 13th WB 1.4 (830) -62% 1705 63.3 The International Sony 1.3 (1,130) -53% 1184 23.7 Street Fighter: Legend of Chun-Li Fox 1.3 (1,150) -72% 1164 7.1 The Pink Panther 2 Sony 1.3 (1,050) -48% 1219 34.6 Push Summit 1.1 (990) -51% 1142 29.6 Hotel for Dogs Par 1.0 (930) -38% 1120 69.2 Madama Butterfly Metropolitan .81 (2,810) 288 0.81 The Wrestler Fox Searchlight .78 (1,150) -44% 679 24.7 Milk Focus .61 (1,360) -59% 447 31.1 Curious Case of Benjamin Button Par .50 (1,250) -37% 401 126.2 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $113.80 - - - % Change (Last Year) - 12% - - - % Change (Last Week) - 9% - - - Also debuting/expanding One Week Mongrel .18 (3,030) - 61 0.18 The Horsemen Lions Gate 66,300 (880) - 75 0.07 Everlasting Moments IFC 41,500 (8,300) - 5 0.04 Phoebe in Wonderland Thinkfilm 26,600 (2,420) - 11 0.03 Tokyo! Vitagraph 22,700 (22,700) - 1 0.02 12 Sony Classics 11,100 (2,220) - 5 0.01 Fados Zeitgeist 11,000 (11,000) - 1 0.01