Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

October 28, 2007 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share Close Shave It was Veni, Vidi, Vici for Saw IV as it cut a neat swath estimated at $32.4 million to take the lead in the weekend box office race. The frame also delivered good results for the Steve Carrell romantic comedy Dan in Real Life of $12 million to clinch second position. Additionally there was strong response for the indie human comedy Bella of $1.2 million in limited release and exclusive engagements of Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and Cannes prize winner 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days generated potent respective per screens of $34,600 and $8,850. Otherwise debuting product that ranged from the social drama The Music Within, Mr. Invisible, Rails & Ties and the non-fiction Jimmy Carter Man from Plains were commercially bland. While collectively the new titles provided a nice viewing boost it still came up slightly shy of 2006 levels. Industry anxiety about declining grosses has now heightened a mixture of expectation and nervousness about next weekend's bows of American Gangster and Bee Movie that are viewed as key to a box office turnaround. The pre-Halloween tradition of slice and dice entertainment was again reinforced by Saw IV's arrival. The film got an early start with Thursday midnight shows that generated about $1.5 million and its weekend tally (about 4% down from the prior edition) indicated the franchise is still vibrant. On the heels of The Heartbreak Kid, pundits were cautious about Dan in Real Time's commercial prospects. Most doubted it could crack $10 million but Friday results exceeded those expectations and the film enjoyed an 18% revenue boost on Saturday. Overall business climbed to roughly $105 million that translated into an 8% boost from last weekend but still lagged behind results from 12 months earlier by 2%. In 2006, Saw III (sans Midnight shows) led with $33.6 million with the fourth weekend of The Departed taking place position with $9.8 million. Holdover titles rocked and rolled with genre fare including 30 Days of Night experiencing sharp downturns but such adult oriented fare as Gone Baby Gone and Michael Clayton holding up well in the sated marketplace. Nonetheless one has to conclude that the sheer volume of product is making it increasingly difficult to strategize an effective platform release as evidenced by the likes of The Assassination of Jesse James … and The Darjeeling Limited while the jury's still out on Lars and the Real Girl. A prize winner at the Toronto festival, Bella had a strong likeability quotient though few obvious commercial hooks. Initial critical praise and word-of-mouth kicked in effectively for a very solid $7,390 engagement average. Pre-release press also translated effectively for the crime drama Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and the Romanian abortion drama 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days with the former opening at two Manhattan sites and the latter launching at two Montreal cinemas. However, the bloom is definitely off the rose for documentaries. Or, one could argue that the industry has effectively killed the layer of the golden egg with too many non-fiction movies (this weekend both Jimmy Carter and How to Cook Your Life) that cannot sustain even a niche crowd at the multiplex. The erosion of audiences for alternative fare has been systematically squandered in the past three years with a glut of American independent releases and as with the mainstream (though more difficult to organize) a policy of less is more may have to be enacted. - Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - October 26-28, 2007 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume Saw IV Lions Gate 32.4 (10,190) - 3183 32.4 Dan in Real Life BV 12.0 (6,230) - 1921 12 30 Days of Nights Sony 6.6 (2,310) -59% 2859 27.2 The Game Plan BV 6.2 (1,860) -24% 3342 77 Why Did I Get Married? Lions Gate 5.7 (2,990) -53% 1897 47.2 Michael Clayton WB 4.9 (1,890) -27% 2585 28.6 Gone Baby Gone Miramax 3.9 (2,290) -29% 1713 11.3 The Comebacks Fox 3.5 (1,240) -37% 2812 10 Nightmare Before Christmas 3D (reissue) BV 3.4 (6,060) -36% 564 10.1 We Own the Night Sony 3.3 (1,390) -39% 2402 25 Rendition New Line 2.3 (1,030) -43% 2250 7.8 The Darjeeling Limited Fox Searchlight 1.7 (2,490) 35% 698 6.1 The Heartbreak Kid Par 1.7 (830) -56% 2003 35 Across the Universe Sony 1.6 (1,700) -38% 964 19.2 Elizabeth: The Golden Age Uni 1.6 (980) -50% 1603 14 Into the Wild Par Vantage 1.5 (2,310) -29% 658 8.9 Bella Roadside Attract. 1.2 (7,390) - 165 1.2 The Kingdom Uni 1.1 (1,080) -51% 1053 45.9 Lars and the Real Girl MGM .88 (2,970) 368% 296 1.3 Things We Lost in the Fire Par .69 (600) -56% 1142 2.8 Lust, Caution Focus .53 (3,710) -9% 143 2.9 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) - $96.70 - - - % Change (Last Year) - -2% - - - % Change (Last Week) - 8% - - - Also debuting/expanding Assassination of Jesse James … WB .44 (1,500) -17% 294 2.9 Before the Devil Knows You're Dead Thinkfilm 69,200 (34,600) 2 - 0.07 Mr. Untouchable Magnolia 50,700 (1,950) 26 - 0.05 The Music Within MGM 47,500 (2,790) 17 - 0.05 Reservation Road Focus 44,600 (1,140) 39 24% 0.1 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days Metropole 17,700 (8,850) 2 - 0.02 Rails & Ties WB 10,800 (2,160) 5 - 0.01 Jimmy Carter - Man from Plains Sony Classics 9,200 (1,320) 7 - 0.01 Black Irish Anywhere Road 6,600 (1,650) 4 - 0.01 How to Cook Your Life Roadside Attract. 5,900 (1,480) 4 - 0.01 Slipstream Strand 5,800 (970) 6 - 0.01 Domestic Box Office - To October 25, 2007 Title Distributor Gross Spider-Man 3 Sony 336,635,065 Shrek the Third Par 323,018,314 Transformers Par 318,468,407 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV 309,481,737 Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix WB 291,404,188 The Bourne Ultimatum Uni 226,205,910 300 WB 210,702,543 Ratatouille BV 204,997,180 The Simpsons Movie Fox 182,738,634 Wild Hogs BV 168,602,747 Knocked Up Uni 148,835,304 Rush Hour 3 NLC 139,541,832 Live Free or Die Hard Fox 134,515,317 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Fox 131,921,738 Night at the Museum * Fox 125,041,114 Superbad Sony 121,533,317 I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry Uni 119,846,096 Hairspray NLC 118,871,849 Blades of Glory Par 118,628,332 Ghost Rider Sony 117,257,346   Domestic Market Share - October 25, 2007 Distributor (releases) Gross (millions) Mrkt Share Paramount (18) 1261.3 16.10% Sony (26) 1143.5 14.60% Warner Bros. (27) 1068.8 13.70% Buena Vista (17) 1029.9 13.20% Universal (18) 921.5 11.80% Fox (19) 754.6 9.70% New Line (11) 410.9 5.30% MGM (21) 290.4 3.70% Lions Gate (19) 290.3 3.70% Focus (8) 106.3 1.40% Fox Searchlight (12) 95.6 1.20% Miramax (8) 70.7 0.90% Picturehouse (7) 56.9 0.70% Other * (269) 314.3 4.00% * none greater than 0.55% 7815 100.00%