..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

February 11, 2007 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share Bit By Norbit ... The audience Norbit hard with the Eddie Murphy comedy commanding the weekend with an estimated $33.3 million. The strong bow nonetheless allowed Hannibal Rising to chomp down on a sizeable $12.9 million gross in a frame that rebounded from the Super Bowl but still lagged behind last year's post performance. The session also featured a potent bow for German Oscar nominee The Lives of Others that recorded a screen average of $16,380 in limited release. Echoes of Big Momma reverberated through Norbit but that did little to deter ticket sales. Expectations for the low brow comedy were in the $22 million to $25 million range though fears of a depressed market had some predicting it would miss that target. Rather it fed into audience expectations and a hunger for something silly that translated into a more voracious response. In his fourth screen outing Hannibal the cannibal supped well but not sumptuously. When Hannibal Rising was announced, eyeballs rolled with the prospect of a tale of his early years. The commercial result initially suggests that a reasonably sized crowded were willing to sit at the table but the arch villain appears to have run his course barring another adventure with Anthony Hopkins. Weekend revenues bumped up to close to $110 million or a 20% rebound from seven days earlier. Grosses were still 10% behind 2006 when the top four entries were new releases headed by The Pink Panther at $20.2 million and Final Destination 3 close behind with $19.2 million. In its limited-wide debut The Last Sin Eater proved barely tempting with a $230,000 gross and engagement averages of $550. Continuing titles generally experienced drops of one-third to one-half with the exception of the indomitable Night at the Museum and movies that figure significantly in the Oscar race that concludes in two weeks. None of the contenders were adding significantly to their screen counts but Letters from Iwo Jima, Babel, Venus and The Last King of Scotland all experienced marginal box office boosts. Additionally, The Queen, Notes on a Scandal and Pan's Labyrinth experienced less than double-digit erosion. There's a strong indication that post-event business for titles that fail to strike gold could experience precipitous commercial drops. The highly lauded political thriller The Lives of Others saw very good response of $210,000 from 13 initial forays. Its late theatrical arrival may have been a strategic misstep considering the surprising commercial momentum of Pan's Labyrinth. The session's other limited freshman was India's politically charged Black Friday but it got lost in translation with a lean $2,000 average in nine locations. It certainly strayed from typical fare on the Bollywood circuit. - Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - February 8-11, 2007 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change Theaters Cume Norbit Par 33.3 (10,610) - 3136 33.3 Hannibal Rising MGM 12.9 (4,300) - 3003 12.9 Because I Said So Uni 9.0 (3,550) -32% 2529 25.6 The Messengers Sony 7.0 (2,760) -53% 2529 24.5 Night at the Museum Fox 5.8 (2,140) -11% 2702 232.2 Epic Movie Fox 4.3 (1,530) -47% 2806 35.3 Smokin' Aces Uni 3.8 (1,740) -37% 2199 30.9 Pan's Labyrinth Picturehouse 3.3 (2,910) -8% 1143 26.4 Dreamgirls Par 2.9 (1,260) -26% 2284 96.9 The Pursuit of Happyness Sony 2.4 (1,330) -21% 1777 160.5 The Queen Miramax 2.4 (1,550) -7% 1564 48.9 Stomp the Yard Sony 2.3 (1,140) -43% 2045 59 Letter from Iwo Jima WB 1.7 (2,210) 2% 781 9.9 Catch and Release Sony 1.7 (1,100) -34% 1561 14.4 Babel  Par Vantage 1.7 (1,830) 1% 919 32 Notes on a Scandal Fox Searchlight 1.5 (2,340) -7% 649 13.9 The Departed WB 1.4 (1,790) -40% 766 130.8 The Last King of Scotland Fox Searchlight 1.3 (2,440) 2% 540 11.4 Freedom Writers Par 1.0 (860) -47% 1125 35.7 Children of Men Uni .84 (1,720) -29% 489 33.9 Blood Diamond WB .79 (1,750) -12% 451 55.1 Volver Sony Class/Seville .66 (1,260) -12% 525 11.8 Arthur and the Invisibles MGM .65 (730) -36% 890 13.6 Charlotte's Web Par .62 (760) -26% 820 80.9 The Painted Veil WIP .53 (1,9300 7% 275 6.4 Happy Feet WB .51 (1,060) -10% 483 193.3 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $104.30 - - - % Change (Last Year) - -10% - - - % Change (Last Week) - 20% - - - Also debuting/expanding Venus Miramax .48 (3,610) 27% 132 1.9 The Last Sin Eater Bigger Pics .23 (550) - 429 0.23 The Lives of Others Sony Classics .21 (16,380) - 13 0.21 Factory Girl MGM .19 (10,970) 121% 18 0.32 Black Friday Adlabs 18,300 (2,030) - 9 0.02 Domestic Market Share: Jan 1 - February 7, 2007 Distributor (releases) Gross Percentage Sony (9) 174.5 20.40% Fox (8) 162.1 18.90% Paramount (6) 123.5 14.40% Universal (5) 115.2 13.50% Warner Bros. (10) 73.4 8.60% MGM (7) 44.1 5.20% Buena Vista (8) 22.7 2.60% Picturehouse (1) 22.5 2.60% Miramax (2) 19.6 2.30% Fox Searchlight (4) 19.2 2.20% Lions Gate (3) 15.9 1.90% Focus (1) 15.9 1.90% New Line (3) 11.7 1.40% Sony Classics (3) 10.6 1.20% Par Vantage (1) 10.5 1.20% Warner Independent (2) 5.5 0.60% Other * (26) 9.1 1.10% - 856 100.00%