..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

July 23, 2006 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share All Shook Up The weekend film going landscape wasn't quite what had been predicted by pundits. Industry tracking was ready for a heated competition between the third weekend of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and the debut of the spooky M. Night Shyamalan thriller Lady in the Water. However, as Friday matinee figures trickled in, one could see an unexpected strength for the animated entry Monster House. Today's estimates show Pirates decidedly ahead with $35.2 million, followed by Monster House at $22.9 million and Lady in the Water trailing with $18.2 million. Additionally, Clerks II ranked sixth with a passable $9.8 million and My Super-Ex Girlfriend faced commercial kryptonite with a dull $8.4 million. Pirates advanced to $322 million domestically and exceeded $500 million worldwide in 17 days of release. It still has many major territories to open internationally and barring floods and fires internal estimates of a $1 billion global box office appear well founded. Monster House's potent arrival comes with the added irony that it was an orphaned DreamWorks project that timed nicely with Sony's hopes to develop its animation unit. Well reviewed, the film played to the core family audience with nonetheless a significant non-parent adult crowd that was the difference between struggling to $20 million and exceeding studio projections by 20%. The film went out to 163 theaters in 3-D and accounted for roughly $2.6 million of the gross and a $16,000 per location average. Lady in the Water arrived with a copious amount of media attention and wound up challenging the old axiom that there's no such thing as bad publicity. The filmmaker's divorce from Disney was scrupulously examined in the press along with opening reviews and the mix of on-and-off screen provided more confusion than benefit. Similarly, the simultaneous publication of a book on Shyamalan obscured the primary focus. The lack of publicity for My Super Ex-Girlfriend posed a more self-fulfilling commercial conclusion. It arrived in the marketplace with a taint but positive word-of-mouth translated into a 23% Saturday boost while the Clerks II sequel dipped by 19% and Lady in the Water ebbed by 5%. It's worth noting that the same company that conducted preview testing for the romantic-comedy spoof predicted a $30 million plus debut for Shyamalan's movie. The session benefited from volume rather than strength with a weekend tally of about $165 million that translated into a 6% drop from the immediate prior frame. It was however 8% improved from 2005 when premieres of The Island and The Bad News Bears bowed to disappointing business. Anticipation of a commercial dynamo is high for next weekend's launch of Miami Vice. Holdover titles generally experienced drops of 33% to 45%. The Devil Wears Prada - one of the season's few genuine upbeat surprises - added $7.3 million to its cume and should cross the $100 million bar on Wednesday. New entries in niche arenas were scarce and most such as the compilation Boys Shorts 4 opted for exclusive engagements. The idiosyncratic thriller Shadowboxer ventured out with 22 engagements and returned an OK gross of $94,500. Otherwise it was the usual suspects including An Inconvenient Truth, Wordplay and Strangers with Candy. - by Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - July 21-23, 2006 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change Theaters Cume Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV 35.2 (8,510) -44% 4133 321.9 Monster House Sony 22.9 (6,460) - 3553 22.9