..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

July 16, 2006 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share The Squid and the Wayan …and Dupree The question was not whether Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest would lead weekend film going but how steep would be its box office drop. The secondary concern were the performances of debuting pictures Little Man and You, Me and Dupree. And, of course, there was the issue of how well everything else in the marketplace would weather the storm, the heat and everything else. The clutch of new limited releases barely registered on the radar. The Pirates sequel grossed an estimated $62.3 million that translated to a 54% decline from its opening weekend. The result fell somewhere on the line between a fabulous and catastrophic hold. Perhaps, one could even say it was a very good result coming off of the biggest opening weekend of all-time. But it was neither a 30% nor a 65% fall and on the domestic front that likely will mean an ultimate box office of slightly more than $400 million. International box office projections are pegged at $600 million and if they hold up would rank the swashbuckling sequel as the third biggest global grosser of all time. Bragging rights for second place saw a close race that gave the Wayans brothers dark comedy Little Man a slight edge of slightly less than $400,000 and a weekend tally of $21.8 million. That put the low brow comedy You, Me and Dupree into third position. Certainly one couldn't complain too much about the opening strength of either picture. Nonetheless, one had to wonder about the wisdom of opening two comedies with essentially the same core audience appeal at the same time. On the heels of last weekend's record-breaking business, the only logical way to go was south. The current frame was heading toward a $160 million frame that translates into a 29% decline from seven days earlier. It was also off the 2005 pace by 5% when the opening salvo of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was $56.2 million and Wedding Crasher's bow was a not too shabby $33.9 million. Pirates fever escalated to a pitch level that's largely obscured the fortunes of continuing fare. That could well be a blessing, for the moment, for Superman Returns that now appears to be struggling toward a $200 million domestic box office. On the flip side, the initial potency of The Devil Wears Prada has lost the spotlight even as it approaches a $100 million gross no one saw coming. Similarly, it's required due diligence to keep the ink flowing for An Inconvenient Truth that looks to be a film that will play steadily thorough the season and into the autumn. The session was rife with specialized debuts that largely ranged from promising to very good. A pair of French imports with similar translated titles - Changing Times and Time to Leave - saw the former very strong with a $29,500 box office in a solo date and the latter finding its niche with a $15,500 tally from two screens. Ed Burns's The Groomsman received generally strong reviews and an OK start of $27,600 from three locations while The Oh in Ohio was struggling with a $47,400 box office from 10 initial playdates. The animated Asterix and the Vikings descended on Quebec with an aggressive 83 screen launch that resulted in a passable result of roughly $181,000. - by Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - July 14-16, 2006 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change Theaters Cume Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV 62.3 (15,080) -54% 4133 258.4 Little Man Sony 21.8 (8,610) -- 2533 21.8