..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

June 4, 2006 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share Breaking Up Is Easy To Do ... The Break-Up surprised pundits with a potent estimated bow of $38.9 million to rank at the top of the box-office chart. The frame also featured strong response for the eco warning An Inconvenient Truth and a passable bow for the French action thriller District B-13. And while business registered a slight increase from 2005, it was a very shallow field with just four films accounting for about 84% of weekend revenues. Entering the weekend, trackers predicted a 55%-60% drop for X-Men: The Last Stand that made it an easy winner against The Break-Up - the sole new national release. The very dark romantic comedy was expected to gross about $25 million with internal studio estimates no higher than $28 million. The tracking skewed heavily female with little indication the pairing of Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn had better than modest appeal. War of the Roses notwithstanding, its grim perspective was also viewed as a detriment. Exit polls confirmed a female preference of 65% and the picture’s draw was abetted by both the paucity of comedies in the marketplace and the absence of new titles. Meanwhile, X3 took a harder than expected 67% hit. For decades the industry has griped about the accuracy of predictive tracking that’s dominated by one company - NRG - but remains apprehensive about more sophisticated market research that would cut down on weekend surprises both good and ill. Weekend ticket sales should approach about $135 million and that translates into a 33% decline for the 3-day portion of last weekend’s Memorial holiday frame. It was 1% ahead of last year’s comparable span when Madagascar led with $28.1 million and The Cinderella Man was the top new entry with $18.3 million. The good news for distribution is that while current summer admissions are on par with 2005, it’s been achieved with a smaller number of national releases. An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore’s cautionary tour of global warming, added 73 locations that heated up theater averages of $17,400 and a weekend gross of slightly more than $1.3 million. Albeit on a smaller level, its appeal is a reminder of an earlier summer documentary release - Fahrenheit 911. Another politically sensitive non-fiction entry, The War Tapes, rang up an impressive $13,300 from a single playdate and the Oscar short-listed doc Favela Rising had a good initial gross of $7,300 from a solo exposure. The session also had an interesting sidebar in the limited releases of District B-13 from France and the Korean Typhoon. Unlike the majority of foreign imports, both films were popular releases produced as local competition for American blockbusters. However, the long tradition of sub-titled movies having first appeal to mature audiences continues to limit their domestic impact, as witnessed recently by Night Watch. Both films would have benefited from dubbed versions, with the kinetic District B-13 and the effects laden Typhoon winding up with respective theater averages of $2,540 and $2,060. The dramatic Peaceful Warrior had OK returns of $70,340 from 10 venues. - by Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - June 2-4, 2006 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change Theaters Cume The Break-Up Uni 38.9 (12,660) x 3070 38.9 X-Men: The Last Stand Fox 34.4 (9,260) -67% 3714 175.7 Over the Hedge Par 20.9 (5,230) -23% 3993 112.6