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..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..Emanuel Levy
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride




February 12, 2006
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share - 2006


The Pinkwell ...

It's an odyssey with a decided happy ending. The Pink Panther squeaked ahead of the competition with an estimated $21.4 million to emerge as the weekend's top grossing movie. Three other films also made national debuts and took the next three positions. The horror sequel Final Destination 3 grossed $19.9 million while the animated Curious George arrived with $15.4 million and the Harrison Ford thriller Firewall followed with $13.7 million.

Instigated during a period when the studio previously known as MGM was raiding its own library, The Pink Panther went through a series of producers, directors and actors before arriving at its current incarnation. It was then handed off to Sony where it underwent re-shoots and was reinvented as a family friendly offering and its arrival in theaters was set and delayed on at least three occasions. So, while the character and the movie retained a high awareness, it was also perceived as a looming catastrophe. Reviewers in general responded with pleasant surprise, and if the Steve Martin vehicle clicks with overseas audience, a franchise will definitely be reborn.

Also on the franchise front, the third installment of Final Destination was the anticipated front runner entering the weekend and won the day on Friday. However, its box office improved by 7% on Saturday while the Panther's stock expanded about 55%. The first destination bowed just shy of $10 million and its follow up climbed to $16 million. Still the second outing grossed less than the original and the industry will be watching closely to see if "3" has an even faster burn out.

Another project that took years to reach the screen was Curious George, a favorite of children and a daunting proposition for producers. It also was well received and faired well against the crimson feline. The frame certainly ranked as the most competitive since the holiday period and the individual grosses of the four freshmen were all better than respectable with some of the titles getting bruised but not crushed in the process. Perhaps realizing the worst case scenario, the traditionally press shy Ford blitzed the talk show circuit in a fashion that likely spared Firewall from sinking to a gross of less than $10 million.

Weekend revenues shot up about 18% to roughly $125 million from seven days earlier and had a modest 4% increase on the comparable period of 2005. With the industry now inured to the slow, steady erosion of its theatrical audience, any glimmer is received as a four-alarm blaze.

The wave of new product generally translated into 50% and greater declines for continuing titles in the marketplace. Brokeback Mountain was comparatively resilient with its box office off by one-third but other Oscar contenders aren't demonstrating comparable stamina and that's been particularly distressing for theater owners accustomed to the commercial benefits of past award's fever.

The session's niche bows were largely uninspired with the exception of the Neil Young concert film Heart of Gold. Response has been rapturous for the music and film craft and that translated into its four exclusive runs posting better than $14,000 per venue. It expands to seven more centers next weekend and will continue a steady expansion.

Among the other commercially tepid new offerings the sport documentary Through the Fire grossed $14,200 through eight hoops and the indie actioner London tallied $12,800 from seven theaters. The 1948 classic The Fallen Idol received an appropriately reverential $9,700 from a single Manhattan screen.

- by Leonard Klady


Weekend Estimates - February 10-12, 2006

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
The Pink Panther
Sony
21.4 (6,150)
o
3477
21.4
Final Destination 3
New Line
19.9 (6,900)
o
2880
19.9
Curious George
Uni
15.4 (5,990)
o
2566
15.4
Firewall
WB
13.7 (4,820)
o
2840
13.7
When a Stranger Calls
Sony
9.9 (3,290)
-54%
3004
34.7
Big Momma's House 2
Fox
6.8 (2,480)
-50%
2733
54.8
Nanny McPhee
Uni
5.1 (2,360)
-48%
2148
33.1
Brokeback Mountain
Focus
4.1 (2,070)
-32%
1963
66.5
Underworld: Evolution
Sony
2.5 (1,350)
-53%
1835
57.2
Hoodwinked
Weinstein Co.
2.3 (1,120)
-56%
2085
47.2
Something New
Focus
2.2 (1,740)
-55%
1265
8.2
The Chronicles of Narnia
BV
2.1 (1,600)
-32%
1302
284.8
Walk the Line
Fox
2.0 (1,630)
-38%
1248
113.7
Capote
Sony Classics
1.4 (1,300)
-40%
1055
20.2
Match Point
DreamWorks
1.3 (2,600)
-28%
512
18.4
Annapolis
BV
1.3 (1,020)
-63%
1250
15.2
The Matador
Weinstein Co.
1.2 (1,630)
-49%
712
10.5
Glory Road
BV
1.1 (840)
-60%
1351
40.7
Good Night, and Good Luck
WIP
.83 (1,210)
-45%
685
28.2
Munich
Uni
.78 (1,430)
-53%
546
44.3
Last Holiday
Par
.74 (780)
-72%
949
37.7
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Weinstein Co.
.73 (2,820)
-30%
259
4.4
The New World
New Line
.64 (970)
-55%
660
11.3
King Kong
Uni
.54 (1,220)
-55%
441
215.7
End of the Spear
Rocky Mtn
.53 (1,300)
-55%
407
10.7
Fun with Dick and Jane
Sony
.51 (950)
67%
536
109.2
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
o
$119.00
o
o
o
% Change (Last Year)
o
4%
o
o
o
% Change (Last Week)
o
18%
o
o
o
Also debuting/expanding
TransAmerica
Weinstein Co.
.43 (3,430
-20%
126
2.8
The World's Fastest Indian
Magnolia
.21 (2,260)
-47%
93
0.77
Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
Sony Classics
.17 (3,890)
-17%
44
0.48
Heart of Gold
Par Classics
56,500 (14,120)
o
4
0.06
Through the Fire
Cinema Libre
14,200 (1,780)
o
8
0.01
London
IDP
12,800 (1,820)
o
7
0.01
The Fallen Idol (reissue)
Rialto
9,700 (9,700)
o
1
0.01
Cowboy del Amor
Emerging
5,400 (2,700)
o