..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..Emanuel Levy
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

December 11, 2005 Weekend Estimates Narnia: The Boffo, the Rich and the Franchise.. December arrived like a lion with The Chronicles of Narnia roaring to an estimated $65.7 million debut that eclipsed virtually everything else in the realm of the multiplex. Nonetheless the frame was also noteworthy for the national bow of Syriana, excellent platform openings of Memoirs of a Geisha and Brokeback Mountain and a potent debut of Les Boys IV in Quebec. Narnia, based on the C.S. Lewis fantasy novels of the 1950s, was viewed as a high risk roll of the dice with an enormous downside if young viewers failed to respond with Potter-like zeal. Disney has long been in search of a franchise and the nine book Narnia series had tremendous appeal if - the big if - the first outing connected as a major holiday release. Its record domestic bow provided a collective sigh of relief for Disney and Walden Media and insider confidence the film can withstand the arrival of a big gorilla. Overseas prospects for Narnia were perceived as stronger than in the U.S. and initial figures appear to bear out that wisdom. The film premiered in 14 countries simultaneous with domestic and Sunday estimates should add about $41 million to its larder. In Britain it's expected to do close to $10 million with Spain providing in excess of $7 million, Germany more than $5 million and Mexico at $4.6 million. In New Zealand where it was filmed, Narnia had a sharp $1.5 million gross. The Narnia onslaught swelled weekend box office grosses by 46% from the prior frame with revenues near $130 million. It was also up a significant 17% from 2004 and with King Kong in the wings there's industry confidence that the current gap of 6.5% from last year can be reduced to a couple of percentage points. The political thriller Syriana went wide this weekend, finishing second with about $11.7 million and a potent $6,670 theater average. Its on-going commercial prospects also appear strong as its one of the very few holiday entries with serious content and adult appeal. In general one can already see the strain big openers have on holdover titles with most films in the marketplace experiencing 40% to 60% declines. Rent is very quickly emerging as a seasonal casualty while Just Friends is displaying truly unexpected resilience. The session also provided an initial taste of two high profile movies. The long gestating Memoirs of a Geisha bowed in eight locations to a gross of roughly $660,000. Geisha, based on the bestselling novel, initially was to be directed by Steven Spielberg and advance word had been mixed. However, initial response has been strong. Brokeback Mountain proved even more potent on a pound for bound basis. It grossed about $550,000 from five engagements. The modern western saga with a controversial sexual theme won top prize at Venice and was named top film of the year by the Los Angeles Film Critics on Saturday. Still, the subject matter raises concerns of wide appeal and awards and upcoming nominations will factor on how broad an appeal it can extend. The other notable bow was Les Boys IV, a tale of hockey, hijinx and sentiment that's been a commercial powerhouse in Quebec. It debuted to the best numbers for the series and could well emerge as the top local grosser of the year if holiday ardor can be maintained. The rest of the freshman crowd included a disappointing $80,000 for the Bollywood entry Neal n' Nikki and a weak initial lap of slightly more than $10,000 for the highly regarded The World's Fastest Indian from three venues. The latter film will need to rev up in the crowded seasonal specialized field that's only just begun. Off to a better start was Mrs. Henderson Presents with a gross of $51,000 from six theaters. Its on-going appeal and expansion prospects may get a boost if either Judy Dench or Bob Hoskins receive nominations from Tuesday's announcement of Golden Globe contenders. - by Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - December 9-11, 2005 - Title Distributor Gross (average) % change Theaters Cume The Chronicles of Narnia BV 65.7 (18,160) - 3616 65.7 Syriana WB 11.7 (6,670) - 1752 13.2 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB 10.1 (2,710) -49% 3728 243.9 Walk the Line Fox 5.7 (1,880) -40% 3034 76.9 Yours, Mine and Ours Par 5.1 (1,580) -38% 3210 40.9 Aeon Flux Par 4.4 (1,690) -65% 2608 20.1 Just Friends New Line 3.9 (1,570) -31% 2464 26.4 Pride and Prejudice Focus 2.5 (1,860) -44% 1335 26.4 Chicken Little BV 2.3 (980) -48% 2326 127.2 Rent Sony 2.0 (1,030) -54% 1971 26.9 Les Boys IV Christal 1.4 (9,860) - 144 1.4 Derailed Weinstein Co 1.2 (1,090) -47% 1128 34.7 The Polar Express Imax (reissue) WB .91 (13,790) 9% 66 1666.6 In the Mix Lions Gate .83 (890) -56% 934 9.8 Memoirs of a Geisha Sony .66 (82,400) - 8 0.68 Brokeback Mountain Focus .55 (109,800) - 5 0.55 Good Night, and Good Luck WIP .54 (1,050) -52% 512 21.9 The Ice Harvest Focus .51 (590) -69% 865</