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January 2, 2005


..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride




October 2 , 2005
Weekend Estimates
Domestic Market Share

Don't Delay

Flightplan continued to have priority clearance as the weekend's top grosser with an estimated $14.9 million in a generally lackluster frame. The sci-fi adventure Serenity was the span's highest new entry, ranking second with $10.2 million and the national expansion of A History of Violence posted an impressive $8.1 million. In niche play Capote was most impressive with a screen average of more than $25,000.

Overall grossing potency ebbed back from the prior weekend by 12% with ticket sales expected to close at about $86 million. There was a sharper 23% erosion from 2004's record when Shark Tale bubbled to a $48 million launch.

Once again there were plenty of new viewing options but generally speaking audiences weren't particular motivated to subscribe. Serenity, based on the cult TV favorite Firefly, appeared to have cache with its small screen devotees but showed little evidence of winning over new converts.

The aquatic adventure Into the Blue headed toward the Red Sea at least figuratively as it broke the surface with an uninspired $7.1 million. Slightly better on a pound-for-pound basis was the bygone golf saga The Greatest Game Ever Played. It posted ninth in the standings with an estimated $3.6 million with about one-third of the theaters of Into the Blue.

Following last weekend's 14-screen bow, A History of Violence expanded to 1340 engagements and finished in fourth spot with $8.1 million. One of the most positively reviewed films of the year, its ironically connected with an action crowd and not simply filmmaker David Cronenberg's upscale devotees. The film's ability to have it both ways, if maintained, could result in a sizeable hit.

Among holdover titles, Flightplan dived a respectable 40% and that was sufficient to keep it at the top of the charts. Meanwhile The Corpse Bride's business fell 48% and hopes that it would have on-going stamina expired. It appears unlikely to reach $60 million without a considerable studio push. A more dire scenario evolved for Oliver Twist that posted barely a $1,000 theater average as it went from five to 779 engagements.

Also precariously perched is the urban tilted Roll Bounce that fell by half even with a boost from sneak previews of In Her Shoes. It appears to be working in one quadrant despite valiant efforts to crossover to a second.

Certainly benefiting from both media interest and festival expose, Capote generated a very potent $303,000 from just one dozen venues. Focusing on the author's research and writing of In Cold Blood, it's emerged as a surprising audience pleaser and a potential awards contender.

Also generating strong initial returns was Little Manhattan with a $39,000 gross from two venues in its namesake city. Following a handful of test engagements, the African children's adventure Duma stepped out with 42 engagements in the Los Angeles branch and struggled to almost $100,000 despite four star reviews and endorsements.

A number of other limited bows had good initial results that don't necessarily suggest buoyant expansion possibilities. The human comedy Prizewinner of Defiance, Ohio had a $160,000 sweepstake at 41 parlors while the mixed media Mirrormask grossed roughly $120,000 from 18 playdates. There was also good response for the Mid-east drama of The War Within with a single-screen gross of $8,500 but the American indies Going Shopping and My Big Fat independent Movie barely registered a pulse with respective grosses of $5,100 (at six venues) and $1,900 (one screen).

- by Leonard Klady


Weekend Estimates - Sept 30 - Oct 2, 2005

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
Flightplan
BV
14.9 (4,350)
-40%
3424
46
Serenity
Uni
10.2 (4,650)
2188
10
The Corpse Bride
WB
9.9 (3,100)
-48%
3204
33
A History of Violence
New Line
8.1 (6,020)
1340
8.8
Into the Blue
Sony
7.1 (2,560)
2789
7.1
Just Like Heaven
DreamWorks
6.2 (1,740)
-36%
3543
39
The Exorcism of Emily Rose
Sony
4.4 (1,480)
-40%
3004
69
Roll Bounce
Fox Searchlight
3.9 (2,340)
-49%
1661
13
The Greatest Game Ever Played
BV
3.6 (3,590)
1014
3.6
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Uni
3.1 (1,450)
-28%
2152
101
Lord of War
Lions Gate
2.4 (1,150)
-52%
2125
22
The Constant Gardener
Focus
1.5 (1,470)
-36%
1004
30
Proof
Miramax
1.2 (4,960)
42%
240
2.5
Transporter 2
Fox
1.1 (1,050)
-49%
1056
42
An Unfinished Life
Miramax
1.1 (1,330)
-36%
805
7.4
Cry Wolf
Focus
1.0 (980)
-53%
1038
9
March of the Penguins
WIP/Christal
.95 (870)
-46%
1089
75
Oliver Twist
Sony
.84 (1,080)
-
779
0.9
Wedding Crashers
New Line
.61 (900)
-52%
676
207
Four Brothers
Par
.46 (1,010)
-48%
455
73
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$82.10
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