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..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride




August 14 , 2005
Weekend Estimates
Market Share

Worldwide Releases

Family Business

Despite stronger than expected bows for a couple of national debuts, overall weekend business continued to decline. Four Brothers, an urban revenge saga, led the frame with an estimated $20.4 million with second spot unlocked by the chiller The Skeleton Key with $16.1 million. Several notches behind in fifth position was Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo with a flaccid $9.4 million bow.

Other preems included moribund returns for the war drama The Great Raid; a solid bow for the Bollywood pageant Mangal Pandey and an exceptional limited bow for the non-fiction profile Grizzly Man.

Leading up to the weekend, one could see a steady reversal of fortunes for Four Brothers and the Deuce Bigalow sequel with the former ascending as the bawdy comedy declined in tracking interest. Brothers - based on the 1964 western The Sons of Katie Elder - appeared to benefit from having a simple, graspable premise in a market littered by splashier fare. With a couple of notable exceptions, the summer's most cogent surprises have swung toward low-tech efforts with the show horses providing the industry with a feeling of heightened anxiety.

Timing appeared to benefit The Skeleton Key with the sort of solid returns absent from recent horror potboilers. In the current environment, the genre has emerged as the mainstay of Hollywood with a profitable template based on comparatively modest investment.

Lightning failed to strike twice for the transplanted Deuce Bigalow. His initial foray was a surprise success but familiarity was not its ally. Recent media that focused on its rating's struggle and Disney's decision to hand off the film to Sony also seemed to play against its appeal and prospects for a hopscotch to another continent will likely be curtailed.

Overall weekend box office clocked in with approximately $116 million for a modest 3% bump from the prior weekend. However, the continuing saga of declining summer audiences droned on as reflected in a 14% erosion from business in 2004.

Holdover titles experienced typical declines of 30% to 40% with a not unexpected sharper drop for last week's leader The Dukes of Hazzard that slipped into third place with $12.8 million. The new hot title crown has now been passed on from Wedding Crashers to March of the Penguins with the ethnographic epic adding about 200 theaters and $6.6 million to its ice chest. Last weekend's wide expansion suggested the movie had topped out but its 7% decline (11% on head-to-heads) flies in the face of that pronouncement and the din of interest across all ages and demographics suggested it still has considerable playability.

Other notable expansions included Broken Flowers and The Aristocrats with the former adding roughly 90 engagements for an impressive $1.6 million box office and theater averages of more than $13,000. Aristocrats jumped from 9 to 72 playdates and continued to generate a $10,000 plus average. Still the chronicle of a dirty joke will have great difficulty finding acceptance outside of major urban centers and specialized venues.

The oft-noted unceremonious release of Miramax inventory generated poor returns for The Great Raid of $3.2 million. The not inexpensive Second World War yarn that proved to be neither The Great Escape nor a good entertainment escape had been rumored to be headed direct-to-video.

In niche play, Mangal Panday - The Rising arrived as one of the most anticipated Bollywood epics with its international version serving as the curtain raiser at the recent Locarno film fest. Its opening salvo of almost $350,000 was excellent but slightly short of the outstanding level that had been predicted.

Werner Herzog's portrait of the self-proclaimed Grizzly Man Timothy Treadwell turned out to be the good news bears with the late conservationist-showman generating about $220,000 from just 25 screens. The frame also saw good initial returns for the indie movies Pretty Persuasion that grossed roughly $55,000 from eight venues and Asylum with a $38,500 box office at five sites.

- by Leonard Klady


Weekend Estimates - August 12-14, 2005

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
Four Brothers
Par
20.4 (8,040)
-
2533
20.4
The Skeleton Key
Uni
16.1 (5,820)
-
2770
16.1
The Dukes of Hazzard
WB
12.8 (3,390)
-58%
3785
57.3
Wedding Crashers
New Line
12.1 (3,850)
-25%
3131
164.1
Deuce Bigalo: European Gigolo
Sony
9.4 (2,990)
-
3127
9.4
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
WB
7.3 (2,220)
-33%
3304
183.9
March of the Penguins
WIP/Christal
6.6 (3,200)
-7%
2068
38.1
Sky High
BV
6.1 (2,180)
-32%
2807
43.3
Must Love Dogs
WB
4.5 (1,870)
-38%
2420
34.6
The Great Raid
Miramax
3.2 (3,910)
-
819
3.2
War of the Worlds
Par
2.2 (1,630)
-39%
1340
228.6
Fantastic Four
Fox
2.2 (1,340)
-49%
1617
148.3
Stealth
Sony
2.1 (1,010)
-65%
2040
29.6
Broken Flowers
Focus
1.6 (13,510)
104%
118
2.8
The Island
DreamWorks
1.3 (1,160)
-59%
1107
34.1
Batman Begins
WB
1.0 (1,460)
-43%
710
201.1
Hustle & Flow
Par Classics
.98 (1,210)
-61%
810
20.7
The Bad News Bears
Par
.86 (690)
-69%
1240
31.4
Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Fox
.83 (1,440)
-36%
576
182.4
The Aristocrats
Thinkfilm
.73 (10,140)
205%
72
1.5
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$112.20
-
-
-
% Change (Last Year)
-
3%
-
-
-
% Change (Last Week)
-
-14%
-
-
-
Also Debuting/Expanding
Mangal Pandey - The Rising
Yash Raj
.34 (5,440)
-
63
0.34
Grizzly Man
Lions Gate
.22 (8,840)
-
25
0.22
Junebug
Sony Classics
.11 (5,380)
50%
21
0.25
Pretty Persuasion
IDP
55,300 (6,910)
-
8
0.06
Asylum
Par Classics
38,500 (7,700)
-
5
0.04
La Derniere incarnation
K-O Films
7,550 (240)
-
32
0.01

Top Worldwide Releases: To August 11, 2005

Star Wars: Epi III - Revenge of the Sith
Fox
817,026,330
War of the Worlds
Par/UIP
554,495,122
Madagascar
DmWks
427,731,070
Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Fox/Regency
379,127,511
Meet the Fockers
Uni
372,804,625
Hitch
Sony
367,964,803
Batman Begins
WB
360,827,929
Fantastic Four
Fox
271,144,660
Robots
Fox
250,360,017
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
WB
247,957,552
Constantine
WB
229,853,022
Million Dollar Baby
WB
215,387,661
Kingdom of Heaven
Fox/Pathe
209,221,937
The Pacifier
BV
196,429,953
The Aviator
Miramax/Initial
190,313,237
Wedding Crashers
NLC
176,849,785
Ocean's Twelve
WB
176,333,457
The Longest Yard
Par/CTSI
171,788,476
The Ring Two
DmWks/UIP
160,465,575
The Interpreter
Uni/Wk Title
155,009,871
* does not include 2004 box office
-
-

Domestic Market Share: To August 11, 2005

Company (releases)
Box Office
Percentage
Fox (13)
1076.9
19.30%
Warner Bros. (19)
922.1
16.60%
Paramount (10)
600.7
10.80%
Sony (15)
553.6
9.90%
Universal (13)
502.5
9.00%