..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

July 31, 2005 Weekend Estimates Market Share Limited Releases Under the Radar A trio of new films failed to bolster the marketplace or unseat the three-week run at the top for Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Wedding Crashers; the latter film ascending to the top of the charts with an estimated $20.3 million. It all added up to a crushing double-digit decline in weekend movie attendance. However, in the niches the old adage about telling a dirty joke well generated an eye-popping $61,800 theater average for the non-fiction The Aristocrats. Comparatively speaking the best of the freshmen entries was the family friendly Sky High with $14.6 million in position three. Following close behind were the high-profile actioner Stealth at $13.1 million and the romantic comedy Must Love Dogs with $12.6 million. A year ago, the marketplace leader was the bow of The Village at $50.7 million and the $20 million debut of The Manchurian Candidate ranked third. While hardly unprecedented, Wedding Crashers' climb to the top reflected such past underdog triumphs as There's Something About Mary and My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Humor, pathos and word-of-mouth has provided the film with on-going commercial appeal that should minimally result in a $175 million domestic theatrical gross. Back in March, Sony took the unprecedented step of screening the first 50 minutes of Stealth at ShoWest to bump up the picture's profile with theater owners. Response was mixed but optimistic and an aggressive marketing campaign anticipated a $25 million opening that would be enough to lead a depressed marketplace. Instead it replicated The Island's bow and critical response that was withering. Its limited day-and-date overseas launch provided scant solace with a projected $4.5 million tally from seven markets (primarily in Asia) including a $1.6 million third-place finish in South Korea. More on target were Sky High, a live-action yarn with more than a nodding resemblance to The Incredibles that received generally upbeat reviews and the dating comedy Must Love Dogs with Diane Lane and John Cusack. However, neither film entered the fray with better than modest commercial expectations. In the absence of potent new performer, film going went into a steep decline with grosses slipping 15% from the prior weekend. The comparison with 2004 was bleaker with overall grosses estimated at about $120 million. The year to date cume of $5.3 million trails last year by 8%. Most of the continuing titles experienced significant erosion between 45% and 55% including last week's debutant Hustle & Flow. The exception to the rule was March of the Penguins that continued to add screens, maintain a high screen average and push toward a $20 million gross. In niche and regional exploitation, the focus was clearly on the four-screen launch of The Aristocrats. Featuring dozens of popular comics and zeroing in on an infamous, scatological joke, the film received considerable press and its combination of humor, danger and the profane unquestionably appealed to a significant crowd searching for a mainstream alternative. It played to near capacity throughout the weekend to gross close to $250,000. "We're calling it My Big Fat Dirty Joke at the office," said Mark Urman, president of distribution at Thinkfilm. "You cannot anticipate this kind of response but our hope that it would allow people to get dirty in the sandbox and have some fun seems to be paying off." In Quebec, the well-received animated Pinocchio 3000 proved to be a disappointment with little more than a $1,000 engagement average from 45 venues. Exclusive entries included an encouraging $15,800 at a single site for Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress and a fair $9,300 gross for the American indie King of the Corner. The Australian import The Oyster Farmer crawled to about $10,000 at two theaters and data was unavailable on Die You Zombie Bastards! - by Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates - July 29-31, 2005

Title	Distributor	Gross (average)	% change	Theaters	Cume
Wedding Crashers	New Line	20.3 (6,710)	-21%	3030	115.9
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory	WB	15.8 (4,190)	-44%	3775	147.5
Sky High	BV	14.6 (5,040)	-	2905	14.6
Stealth	Sony	13.1 (3,760)	-	3495	13.1
Must Love Dogs	WB	12.6 (5,050)	--	2505	-
Fantastic Four	Fox	6.5 (2,380)	-48%	2744	135.9
The Island	DreamWorks	5.5 (1,760)	-55%	3138	23.9
The Bad News Bears	Par	5.1 (1,590)	-55%	3183	22.1
War of the Worlds	Par	5.0 (2,130)	-44%	2324	217.9
March of the Penguins	WIP/Christal	4.0 (5,140)	-8%	788	16.9
Hustle & Flow	Par Classics	3.7 (3,670)	-54%	1015	14.3
The Devil's Rejects	Lions Gate	2.4 (1,350)	-67%	1757	12.1
Batman Begins	WB	2.3 (1,420)	-52%	1601	195.7
Mr. & Mrs. Smith	Fox	1.8 (1,590)	-51%	1142	178.5
Herbie: Fully Loaded	BV	.63 (820)	-69%	771	62.6
Star Wars: Epi. III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	.61 (1.420)	-42%	429	377.1
Madagascar	DmWks	.56 (840)	-53%	663	188.2
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)		$134.76	--	--	--
% Change (Last Year)	--	-23%	--	--	--
% Change (Last Week)	--	-15%	--	--	--
Also Debuting/Expanding
The Aristocrats	Thinkfilm	.25 (61,800)	--	4	0.25
Pinocchio 3000	Christal	47,200 (1,050)	--	45	0.05
Balzac & the Little Chinese Seamstress	Empire	15,800 (15,800)	--	1	0.02
King of the Corner	Elevation	9,300 (9,300)	--	1	0.01
The Oyster Farmer	Cine Guild	2,900 (2,900)	--	1	0.01

Top Limited Releases: To July 28, 2005

Bride and Prejudice	Mrmx	6,605,592
Millions	Fox Searchlight	6,549,433
Aliens of the Deep	BV	6,510,824
Mad Hot Ballroom	Par Classics	6,118,626
Space Station	Imax	5,656,787
Downfall	Newmarket	5,509,040
Beyond the Sea	Lions Gate	5,307,776
Ladies in Lavender	IDP/Odeon	5,261,559
Ong Bak: The Thai Warrior	Magnolia/Alliance	4,563,167
A Very Long Engagement	WIP	4,396,424
Howl's Moving Castle	BV	4,395,871
Being Julia	Sony Class/Think	4,221,165
Enron: The Smartest Guys … Room	Magnolia	3,948,868
Kinsey	Fox Searchlight	3,929,716
Melinda and Melinda	Fox Searchlight	3,826,280
Bad Education	Sony Class/Seville	3,740,716
The Merchant of Venice	Sony Classics	3,712,503
C.R.A.Z.Y.	TVA	3,497,414
Rize	Lions Gate	3,447,231
Born into Brothels	Thinkfilm	3,430,164
* no more than 588 playdates

Domestic Market Share: To July 28, 2005

Company (releases)	Box Office	Percentage
Fox (13)	1052.7	20.20%
Warner Bros. (17)	776.6	14.90%
Paramount (10)	572.5	11.00%
Sony (14)	524.6	10.10%
Universal (13)	500.8	9.60%
Buena Vista (15)	374.8	7.20%
Miramax (14)	288.1	5.60%
DreamWorks (4)	283.9	5.50%
New Line (12)	229.1	4.40%
MGM (8)	182.6	3.50%
Lions Gate (12)	133.1	2.60%
Fox Searchlight (6)	65.3	1.30%
Focus (5)	47.4	0.90%
Sony Classics (17)	42.9	0.80%
Other * (154)	126	2.40%
* none greater than 0.4%	5200.4	100.00%