..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..Emanuel Levy
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

Weekend Estimates 2004 International Boxoffice Ek Static! Though it couldn't unseat Meet the Fockers, the Sixth Sense clone White Noise was a very honorable second place with a $24 million debut in a generally upbeat frame. Noise was the sole national opener but the span included limited expansions of both National Society of Film Critics winner Million Dollar Baby and Hotel Rwanda that should provide that all important Oscar consideration. Fockers continued to hold sway with a weekend estimate of $28.7 million that propelled the picture past a $200 million domestic cume. Its 31% decline was comparatively hearty, bucking the trend that the bigger they are, the harder they fall. White Noise was expected to gross in the high teens but easily exceeded advance word and a perceived cynicism about early year releases. The Michael Keaton thriller about communication with the dead is still likely to play out quickly but with an eventual tally in excess of initial projections. The first weekend of 2005 should ring in with slightly more than $120 million for a 12% faster start than last year. It's a considerable boost in light of the tepid holiday frame that had both distribution and exhibition in the doldrums. Holdover titles almost uniformly experienced drops between 30% and 40%. One not unexpected sharper decline was The Polar Express. Its 64% erosion is historically in keeping with holiday-themed movies moving into the New Year and would have been even more extreme save for a continuing potency in large format 3-D engagements. Cited as best picture of the year by the National Society, Million Dollar Baby added 100 theaters to its initial nine engagements and maintained a very sturdy average of $17,900. There remains concern in the industry that the dark nature of the story will limit its commercial potential and its next expansion won't occur until Jan. 28, following the announcement of Oscar nominees. Baby is expected to figure prominently in the Academy Awards while Hotel Rwanda is nervously on the cusp of final ballot mentions. Nonetheless Rwanda had a very impressive expansion similar to the Eastwood picture that translated into a $10,800 engagement average. Also adding playdates in hopes of at least securing acting nominations were The Woodsman and The Assassination of Richard Nixon. The bar isn't particular set high in terms of commercial expectations for either of these dark, brooding dramas with the former showing more modest muscle. In either case award attention would be a box office asset and a hedge against early expiration. In Good Company, the light drama about contemporary corporate politics, held rock steady buoyed by strong revues with close to $150,000 from three venues. It expands to 1,500 theaters next weekend. The session was light on specialized openers with the documentary Hitler's Hit Parade off to a very good start with an $11,000 gross at New York's Film Forum and Travelers and Musicians also faring well with $8,800 also from a single screen. - by Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates - January 7-9, 2005

Title	Distributor	Gross (average)	% change	Theaters	Cume
Meet the Fockers	Uni	28.7 (8,140)	-31%	3527	204.5
White Noise	Uni	24.0 (10,640)	-	2261	24
Lemony Snicket's Unfortunate Incidents	Par	7.5 (2.250)	-48%	3343	105.6
The Aviator	Miramax/WB	7.4 (3,960)	-35%	1867	42.7
Fat Albert	Fox	6.0 (2,260)	-41%	2675	41.3
Ocean's Twelve	WB	5.4 (1,800)	-42%	3010	115.4
National Treasure	BV	4.3 (1,980)	-36%	2177	160.6
Spanglish	Sony	4.3 (1,650)	-31%	2587	37.5
Phantom of the Opera	WB	3.3 (5,360)	-30%	622	21.5
The Life Aquatic	BV	2.7 (2,460)	-39%	1105	19.4
Darkness	Miramax	2.3 (1,320)	-51%	1714	20.3
Finding Neverland	Miramax	2.2 (2,030)	-15%	1077	27.8
The Incredibles	BV	2.0 (1,240)	-51%	1619	254.7
Million Dollar Baby	WB	2.0 (17,900)	620%	109	3.1
The Polar Express	WB	2.0 (1,000)	-64%	2007	158.6
Sideways	Fox Searchlight	1.9 (5,320)	-10%	365	25.2
Closer	Sony	1.7 (1,570)	-22%	1098	30.3
Flight of the Phoenix	Fox	1.5 (920)	-51%	1643	19.3
Blade: Trinity	New Line	1.5 (970)	-51%	1507	50.7
Hotel Rwanda	MGM	1.1 (10,770)	696%	105	1.6
Beyond the Sea	Lions Gate	1.0 (2,640)	-23%	383	3.4
Kinsey	Fox Searchlight	.81 (1,380)	52%	588	7.8
House of Flying Daggers	Sony Classics	.63 (3,800)	-15%	166	5.1
Spongebob Squarepants	Par	.59 (700)	-53%	842	82.9
A Very Lomg Engagement	WIP	.57 (3,480)	-18%	164	3.6
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)		$115.70	-	-	-
% Change (Last Year)		-19%	-	-	-
% Change (Last Week)		12%	-	-	-
Also Debuting/Expanding
In Good Company	Uni	.15 (49,100)	-3%	3	0.44
The Woodsman	Newmarket	.12 (4,390)	48%	28	0.36
Assassination of Richard Nixon	Thinkfilm	64,370 (2,010)	69%	32	0.14
Hitler's Hit Parade	Indie	10,820 (10,820)	-	1	0.01
Travellers and Magicians	Zeitgeist	8,820 (8,820)	-	1	0.01

Top Limited Releases: January 1 - December 2, 2004

Title	Distributor	Gross (millions)
Sideways	Fox Searchlight	20,255,070
Nascar: The Imax Experience	WB	19,476,576
The Motorcycle Diaries	Focus	15,535,300
De-Lovely	MGM	13,455,445
In America	Fox Searchlight	11,858,410
Super Size Me	IDP/Odeon	11,536,423
Girl with a Pearl Earring	Lions Gate	11,159,001
21 Grams	Focus	10,843,407
Space Station	Imax	10,133,426
House of Sand and Fog	DmWks	10,094,363
What the #$*! Do We Know	Lord of Wind/IDP	10,025,894
Bugs!	SK Film	9,627,654
Saved!	MGM	8,936,039
The Cooler	Lions Gate	6,900,809
Woman Thou Art Loosed	Magnolia	6,879,730
Maria Full of Grace	NLC	6,550,321
The Triplets of Belleville	Sony Class/Alliance	6,536,791
Before Sunset	WIP	5,820,649
The Clearing	Fox Searchlight	5,763,875
Kinsey	Fox Searchlight	5,738,379
* none greater than 600 playdates does not include 2003 grosses

Domestic Market Share**: January 1 - December 30, 2004

Distributor (releases)	Gross (millions)	Percentage
Sony (24)	1335	14.30%
Warner Bros. (33)	1219.4	13.10%
Buena Vista (27)	1154.2	12.40%
DreamWorks (11)	938.9	10.10%
Fox (17)	925.9	9.90%
Universal (17)	880.8	9.40%
Paramount (17)	622.6	6.70%
New Line (18)	435.1	4.70%
Newmarket (6)	406.7	4.40%
Miramax (21)	382.2	4.10%
Lions Gate (27)	279.9	3.00%
MGM (14)	198.7	2.10%
Fox Searchlight (11)	172	1.80%
Focus (8)	125.2	1.30%
Alliance (21)	55.4	0.60%
Other * (235)	197.7	2.10%
* none greater than .5% ** estimated	9329.7	100%