..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..Emanuel Levy
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride

Weekend Estimates Top Canadian Grosses Market Share The Big Chill … Very Incredible Roughly half of the movie going crowd got animated as The Incredibles led the weekend with an estimated $52.1 million and the debut of The Polar Express ranked second with $24.2 million. The frame also saw an excellent launch for Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason in limited release and respectable bows for After the Sunset and Seed of Chucky that boosted business by 12% from 2003. Additionally both Kinsey and Finding Neverland registered strong per theater averages in a handful of situations as each position for award's consideration. The buzz on the wire was considerable both in respect to an exceptionally strong hold for The Incredibles and what's being deemed as the underperformance of Polar Express. Of the former, while it's not unprecedented, it's very rare for a film to open at more than $60 million and drop less than 30%. The most recent examples include Monsters Inc. and How the Grinch Stole Christmas. However, on the latter, the drop was mitigated by the fact that its second weekend coincided with the Thanksgiving holiday. The strength of the current release is largely being credited to an unusually strong adult audience. Certainly set beside the industry leader, The Polar Express debut wilts by comparison. The anticipation for the technically innovative adaptation of the kid lit favorite was considerable and the film itself had a hefty price tag in the arena of $150 million. The film jump started the weekend with a Wednesday bow and a $7.3 million gross that suggested a much more potent weekend. A bow of anything less than $40 million was going to create headaches across the board and its tally came considerably short of that benchmark. While it's possible that Polar could hold well and sustain through the holidays, it will be a difficult and costly proposition. It's also worth noting that the film's 59 Imax engagements generated about $2.1 million for screen averages roughly six times greater than conventional engagements. The domestic box office passed $8 billion Friday and the OK news is that the level was reached 3% faster than in 2003. The downside is that admissions are trailing last year by roughly 5% and the present industry consensus is that the Thanksgiving-Christmas lineup appears light on potent commercial titles. Few anticipate that the lag in ticket sales will narrow and some fear that final box office gross figures might be flat with last year. The noise generated by the two non-live action movies virtually drowned out some significant twists of the weekend. The Bridget Jones sequel registered an impressive $16,700 average from 530 playdates and an $8.9 million gross. It demonstrates how a few strategic theaters disproportionately impact grosses. Universal had considered doing sneaks but opted for the mid-range break instead that proved to be a very effective toe-hold for its holiday national expansion. The film also debuted to record breaking numbers in five overseas markets including the U.K. and Australia and will likely gross more than $30 million. The heist caper film After the Sunset began on a respectable note with a third place finish of $11.1 million and based on an $8.3 million bow for Seed of Chucky, the current audience taste for low budget horror fare has not slaked. Its brethren The Grudge and Saw also remained strong with the former poised to reach a $100 million cume by Tuesday. The weekend also saw a better than usual bow for the latest film on the Bollywood circuit Veer Zaara. It grossed about $610,000 from 88 venues. Exclusives were led by a couple of films lining up to capitalize on critical kudos as the award season ramps up. Finding Neverland on J.M. Barrie's creation of Peter Pan opened in eight locations and should spark an initial gross of $220,000 and a screen average of slightly better than $27,000. It received mixed reviews while Kinsey, on the controversial 1950s sex researcher, was mostly thumbs up and spawned a $34,000 average from five theaters and a $170,000. Other lower profile fare proved less potent including the holiday-themed Noel with $7,800 from 10 sites and the single screen outing for the true life rags to riches to rags Hollywood saga Overnight fading once again with a $3,700 debut. - by Leonard Klady

Weekend Estimates - November 12-14, 2004

Title	Distributor	Gross (average)	% change	Theaters	Cume
The Incredibles	BV	52.1 (13,240)	-26%	3933	145.1
The Polar Express	WB	24.2 (6,630)	-	3650	31.5
After the Sunset	New Line	11.1 (3,920)	-	2819	11.1
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason	Uni	8.9 (16,720)	-	530	8.8
Ray	Uni	8.4 (3,410)	-38%	2463	52.5
Seed of Chucky	Focus	8.3 (4,020)	-	2061	8.3
The Grudge	Sony	7.2 (2,150)	-43%	3336	99.4
Saw	Lions Gate	6.6 (2,660)	-41%	2467	45.9
Shall We Dance	Miramax	4.1 (1,600)	-28%	2542	48.7
Alfie	Par	2.7 (1,240)	-56%	2215	11.1
Shark Tale	DreamWorks	2.2 (1,370)	-51%	1622	157.6
Friday Night Lights	Uni	1.3 (6,290)	-55%	2110	59.4
Sideways	Fox Searchlight	1.3 (9,170)	26%	66	3.7
Ladder 49	BV	1.2 (1,470)	-54%	830	72.1
Team America: World Police	Par	.82 (940)	-56%	875	32
The Motorcycle Diaries	Focus	.74 (3,110)	-22%	238	11.8
Veer Zaara	Yash Raj	.61 (6,930)	-	88	0.61
I Heart Huckabees	Fox Searchlight	.53 (1,910)	-52%	278	11.2
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)		$142.20	-
% Change (Last Year)		+2%	-
% Change (Last Week)		12%	-
Also Debuting/Expanding
Birth	New Line	.33 (5,930)	-75%	550	4.4
Finding Neverland	Miramax	.22 (2,710)	-	8	0.22
Vera Drake	New Line	.20 (2,500)	-22%	80	1.5
Kinsey	Fox Searchlight	.17 (34,210)	-	5	0.17
Noel	Convex	7,800 (780)	-	10	0.01
Overnight	Thinkfilm	3,700 (3,700)	-	1	0.01

Top Grosses Canada: January 1 - November 11, 2004

Title	Distributor	Gross (millions)	%US
Shrek 2	DreamWorks	44,572,631	10%
Spider-Man 2	Sony	38,999,798	10.40%
Harry Potter & Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	31,525,619	12.60%
The Passion of the Christ	Equinoxe	24,185,997	6.50%
Lord of Rings: Return of the King *	Alliance	21,892,922	N/A
The Bourne Supremecy	Uni	21,462,868	12.20%
Fahrenheit 9/11	Alliance	19,935,280	16.70%
Troy	WB	19,367,715	14.50%
The Day After Tomorrow	Fox	17,367,866	9.30%
50 First Dates	Sony	14,300,677	11.80%
Shark Tale	DreamWorks	14,260,601	9.20%
I, Robot	Fox	13,088,262	9.10%
Collateral	DreamWorks	12,206,808	12.10%
The Notebook	Alliance	10,827,256	13.40%
Starsky & Hutch	WB	10,587,495	11.80%
Van Helsing	Uni	10,421,983	8.70%
Kill Bill, Vol. 2	Alliance	10,048,108	15.20%
The Village	BV	9,907,126	8.70%
The Butterfly Effect	Alliance	9,591,468	16.50%
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story	Fox	9,284,711	8.10%
* does not include 2003 box office

Domestic Market Share: January 1 - November 11, 2004

Title	Distributor	Gross (millions)
Distributor (releases)	Gross (millions)	Percentage
Sony (21)	1193.7	15.10%
Warner Bros. (29)	931.3	11.70%
DreamWorks (11)	930.9	11.70%
Fox (16)	887.5	11.20%
Buena Vista (24)	836.7	10.60%
Universal (16)	689.6	8.70%
Paramount (15)	454.5	5.70%
Newmarket (6)	406.5	5.10%
New Line (15)	359.4	4.50%
Miramax (19)	315.2	4.00%
Lions Gate (24)	263.1	3.30%
MGM (14)	198.3	2.50%
Fox Searchlight (10)	143.9	1.80%
Focus (8)	103.4	1.30%
Alliance (19)	53.3	0.70%
Other * (215)	169.2	2.10%
* none greater than .5%	7936.5	100%