October 17, 2004
October 10, 2004
October 3, 2004
Sept 26, 2004
Sept 19, 2004
Sept 12, 2004
Sept 6, 2004
August 29, 2004
August 22, 2004
August 15, 2004
August 8, 2004
August 1, 2004
July 25, 2004
July 18, 2004
July 11, 2004
July 5, 2004
June 27, 2004
June 20, 2004
June 13, 2004
June 6, 2004
May 30, 2004
May 23, 2004
May 16, 2004
May 9, 2004
May 2, 2004
April 25, 2004
April 18, 2004
April 11, 2004
April 4, 2004
March 28, 2004
March 21, 2004
March 14, 2004
March 7, 2004
February 29, 2004
February 22, 2004
February 16, 2004
February 8, 2004
February 1, 2004
January 25, 2004
January 19, 2004
January 11, 2004
January 4, 2004
Dec 28, 2003
Dec 21, 2003
Dec 14, 2003
Dec 7, 2003


..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..Emanuel Levy
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride





Weekend Estimates
Top Canadian Grosses
Market Share

The Big Chill … Very Incredible

Roughly half of the movie going crowd got animated as The Incredibles led the weekend with an estimated $52.1 million and the debut of The Polar Express ranked second with $24.2 million. The frame also saw an excellent launch for Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason in limited release and respectable bows for After the Sunset and Seed of Chucky that boosted business by 12% from 2003.

Additionally both Kinsey and Finding Neverland registered strong per theater averages in a handful of situations as each position for award's consideration.

The buzz on the wire was considerable both in respect to an exceptionally strong hold for The Incredibles and what's being deemed as the underperformance of Polar Express. Of the former, while it's not unprecedented, it's very rare for a film to open at more than $60 million and drop less than 30%. The most recent examples include Monsters Inc. and How the Grinch Stole Christmas. However, on the latter, the drop was mitigated by the fact that its second weekend coincided with the Thanksgiving holiday. The strength of the current release is largely being credited to an unusually strong adult audience.

Certainly set beside the industry leader, The Polar Express debut wilts by comparison. The anticipation for the technically innovative adaptation of the kid lit favorite was considerable and the film itself had a hefty price tag in the arena of $150 million. The film jump started the weekend with a Wednesday bow and a $7.3 million gross that suggested a much more potent weekend. A bow of anything less than $40 million was going to create headaches across the board and its tally came considerably short of that benchmark. While it's possible that Polar could hold well and sustain through the holidays, it will be a difficult and costly proposition.

It's also worth noting that the film's 59 Imax engagements generated about $2.1 million for screen averages roughly six times greater than conventional engagements.

The domestic box office passed $8 billion Friday and the OK news is that the level was reached 3% faster than in 2003. The downside is that admissions are trailing last year by roughly 5% and the present industry consensus is that the Thanksgiving-Christmas lineup appears light on potent commercial titles. Few anticipate that the lag in ticket sales will narrow and some fear that final box office gross figures might be flat with last year.

The noise generated by the two non-live action movies virtually drowned out some significant twists of the weekend. The Bridget Jones sequel registered an impressive $16,700 average from 530 playdates and an $8.9 million gross. It demonstrates how a few strategic theaters disproportionately impact grosses. Universal had considered doing sneaks but opted for the mid-range break instead that proved to be a very effective toe-hold for its holiday national expansion. The film also debuted to record breaking numbers in five overseas markets including the U.K. and Australia and will likely gross more than $30 million.

The heist caper film After the Sunset began on a respectable note with a third place finish of $11.1 million and based on an $8.3 million bow for Seed of Chucky, the current audience taste for low budget horror fare has not slaked. Its brethren The Grudge and Saw also remained strong with the former poised to reach a $100 million cume by Tuesday.

The weekend also saw a better than usual bow for the latest film on the Bollywood circuit Veer Zaara. It grossed about $610,000 from 88 venues.

Exclusives were led by a couple of films lining up to capitalize on critical kudos as the award season ramps up. Finding Neverland on J.M. Barrie's creation of Peter Pan opened in eight locations and should spark an initial gross of $220,000 and a screen average of slightly better than $27,000. It received mixed reviews while Kinsey, on the controversial 1950s sex researcher, was mostly thumbs up and spawned a $34,000 average from five theaters and a $170,000. Other lower profile fare proved less potent including the holiday-themed Noel with $7,800 from 10 sites and the single screen outing for the true life rags to riches to rags Hollywood saga Overnight fading once again with a $3,700 debut.

- by Leonard Klady


Weekend Estimates - November 12-14, 2004

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
The Incredibles
BV
52.1 (13,240)
-26% 3933 145.1
The Polar Express
WB
24.2 (6,630)
- 3650 31.5
After the Sunset
New Line
11.1 (3,920)
- 2819 11.1
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Uni
8.9 (16,720)
- 530 8.8
Ray
Uni
8.4 (3,410)
-38% 2463 52.5
Seed of Chucky
Focus
8.3 (4,020)
- 2061 8.3
The Grudge
Sony
7.2 (2,150)
-43% 3336 99.4
Saw
Lions Gate
6.6 (2,660)
-41% 2467 45.9
Shall We Dance
Miramax
4.1 (1,600)
-28% 2542 48.7
Alfie
Par
2.7 (1,240)
-56% 2215 11.1
Shark Tale
DreamWorks
2.2 (1,370)
-51% 1622 157.6
Friday Night Lights
Uni
1.3 (6,290)
-55% 2110 59.4
Sideways
Fox Searchlight
1.3 (9,170)
26% 66 3.7
Ladder 49
BV
1.2 (1,470)
-54% 830 72.1
Team America: World Police
Par
.82 (940)
-56% 875 32
The Motorcycle Diaries
Focus
.74 (3,110)
-22% 238 11.8
Veer Zaara
Yash Raj
.61 (6,930)
- 88 0.61
I Heart Huckabees
Fox Searchlight
.53 (1,910)
-52% 278 11.2
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$142.20
-
% Change (Last Year)
+2%
-
% Change (Last Week)
12%
-
Also Debuting/Expanding
Birth
New Line
.33 (5,930)
-75% 550 4.4
Finding Neverland
Miramax
.22 (2,710)
- 8 0.22
Vera Drake
New Line
.20 (2,500)
-22% 80 1.5
Kinsey
Fox Searchlight
.17 (34,210)
- 5 0.17
Noel
Convex
7,800 (780)
- 10 0.01
Overnight
Thinkfilm
3,700 (3,700)
- 1 0.01

Top Grosses Canada: January 1 - November 11, 2004

Title
Distributor
Gross (millions)
%US
Shrek 2
DreamWorks
44,572,631
10%
Spider-Man 2
Sony 
38,999,798
10.40%
Harry Potter & Prisoner of Azkaban
WB
31,525,619
12.60%
The Passion of the Christ
Equinoxe
24,185,997
6.50%
Lord of Rings: Return of the King *
Alliance
21,892,922
N/A
The Bourne Supremecy
Uni
21,462,868
12.20%
Fahrenheit 9/11
Alliance
19,935,280
16.70%
Troy 
WB
19,367,715
14.50%
The Day After Tomorrow
Fox
17,367,866
9.30%
50 First Dates
Sony 
14,300,677
11.80%
Shark Tale
DreamWorks
14,260,601
9.20%
I, Robot
Fox
13,088,262
9.10%
Collateral
DreamWorks
12,206,808
12.10%
The Notebook
Alliance
10,827,256
13.40%
Starsky & Hutch
WB
10,587,495
11.80%
Van Helsing
Uni
10,421,983
8.70%
Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Alliance
10,048,108
15.20%
The Village
BV
9,907,126
8.70%
The Butterfly Effect
Alliance
9,591,468
16.50%
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
Fox
9,284,711
8.10%
* does not include 2003 box office

Domestic Market Share: January 1 - November 11, 2004

Title
Distributor
Gross (millions)
Distributor (releases)
Gross (millions)
Percentage
Sony (21)
1193.7
15.10%
Warner Bros. (29)
931.3
11.70%
DreamWorks (11)
930.9
11.70%
Fox (16)
887.5
11.20%
Buena Vista (24)
836.7
10.60%
Universal (16)
689.6
8.70%
Paramount (15)
454.5
5.70%
Newmarket (6)
406.5
5.10%
New Line (15)
359.4
4.50%
Miramax (19)
315.2
4.00%
Lions Gate (24)
263.1
3.30%
MGM (14)
198.3
2.50%
Fox Searchlight (10)
143.9
1.80%
Focus (8)
103.4
1.30%
Alliance (19)
53.3
0.70%
Other * (215)
169.2
2.10%
* none greater than .5%
7936.5
100%

 

 

 

 

 


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