October 17, 2004
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..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..Emanuel Levy
..David Poland
..Doug Pratt
..Ray Pride





Weekend Estimates
Top Domestic Grosses
Market Share

That's Incredibles

Animating what's likely to be Disney's biggest three-day opening, Pixar's The Incredibles crushed the competition with an estimated $72.2 million. The spoof of comic strip superheroes attracted roughly half of all weekend ticket sales and left the rest of the field struggling for poor seconds including the national bow of Alfie. Apart from a couple of good holds, the only other bright note came from the expansion of the critically lauded Sideways that retained a per screen average of close to $15,000.

Disney had hoped to surpass the $70.3 million benchmark established by the summer 2003 debut of Finding Nemo. The Incredibles' Friday box office of $20.8 million certainly put that goal within reach if the film could attract a significant adult audience. Company insiders said the film needed a roughly 40% boost on Saturday and sampling showed the box office rising by 44%. The Mouse House's official estimate is $70.7 million and when one is dealing on such stratospheric revenue levels a variance of a couple of percentage points can translates into as much as $3 million in the final tally.

The frame's only other major release was Alfie, based on the play by Bill Naughton and the 1966 film that made Michael Caine a star. It had a soft landing of $6.5 million that ranked it fifth overall and doesn't bode well in the coming weeks as competition stiffens from films going after major holiday coin.

Spurred by the record breaking animated debut business ballooned by about 49% from seven days earlier, recording roughly $150 million in sales. However, it was still 5% shy of the 2003 level when Matrix Revolutions and Elf openings led the period with respective grosses of $48.5 million and $31.1 million.

Holdover titles saw strong second week returns for both Ray and Saw with the former edging out The Grudge by about $500,000 for second spot with an estimated $13.8 million. Also holding steady was Shall We Dance with $5.7 million and a cume of $42.2 million. It had initially been set for a summer bow and its dominant appeal to adults suggests it might have posted revenues comparable to The Notebook had it maintained the earlier berth.

Adding 50 theaters to its run, the expansion of the quirky upscale comedy Sideways was maintaining its vintage with a $1 million weekend. Hoping for critic list kudos to sustain and boost its box office, Fox Searchlight is keeping a slow roll out strategy to avoid the quick burn it experienced with Huckabees. Other films on a similar track that appears to be working include Being Julia and Vera Drake.

Among incoming specialized fare, Fade to Black on rapper Jay Z grossed about $500,000 from 170 venues and should quickly transition from theatrical to home video for the holidays.

Franco Zeffirelli's biopic Callas Forever with Fanny Ardent as the legendary diva apparently debuted in 24 locations but data was only available from four sites. Based on those playdates, the film should generate a weekend tally of about $21,000. The French sci-fi opus Immortal (Ad Vitam) demonstrated slightly better momentum with a $38,000 box office from five screens in Quebec. Single screen outings for Brother to Brother and Bear Cub were inclusive with respective grosses of $9,800 and $7,800.

- by Leonard Klady


Weekend Estimates - November 5-7, 2004

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
The Incredibles
BV
72.2 (18,350)
- 3933 72.2
Ray
Uni
13.8 (5,590)
-31% 2463 39.8
The Grudge
Sony
13.2 (3,960)
-39% 3336 89.3
Saw
Lions Gate
9.8 (3,980)
-46% 2467 34.1
Alfie
Par
6.5 (2,950)
- 2215 6.5
Shall We Dance
Miramax
5.7 (2,250)
-9% 2542 42.2
Shark Tale
DreamWorks
4.7 (1,660)
-38% 2817 154.2
Friday Night Lights
Uni
2.9 (1,370)
-29% 2110 57.2
Ladder 49
BV
2.6 (1,530)
-21% 1670 69.9
Team America: World Police
Par
1.9 (1,100)
-40% 1702 30.5
Surviving Christmas
DreamWorks
1.3 (840)
-49% 1519 10.2
Taxi
Fox
1.2 (1,110)
-42% 1099 34.6
Birth
New Line
1.1 (1,951)
-37% 550 3.5
I Heart Huckabees
Fox Searchlight
1.1 (1,841)
-37% 585 10.2
Sideways
Fox Searchlight
1.0 (14,900)
142% 66 1.9
The Forgotten
Sony
.92 (1,040)
-46% 882 66
The Motorcycle Diaries
Focus
.87 (3,260)
-12% 268 10.6
Fade to Black
Par Classics
.51 (3,010)
170
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$141.30
-
% Change (Last Year)
-5%
-
% Change (Last Week)
49%
-
Also Debuting/Expanding
Being Julia
Sony Class/Think
.27 (2,760)
-13% 96 1.2
Vera Drake
New Line
.21 (2,211)
-32% 93 1.1
Les Choristes
Alliance
.14 (3,130)
-7% 47 1.5
Enduring Love
Par Classics
52,300 (2,180)
51% 24 0.1
Immortal (Ad Vitem)
Alliance
38,100 (7,620)
- 5 0.04
Callas Forever
Regent
21,350 (5,340)
- 4 0.02
Brother to Brother
Wolfe
9,820 (9,820)
- 1 0.01
Bear Cub
TLA
7,800 (7,800)
- 1 0.01
Some Things That Stay
Odeon
5,500 (1,100)
- 5 0.01

Top Limited Grosses: January 1 - November 4, 2004

Title
Distributor
Gross (millions)
Nascar: The Imax Experience
WB
19,167,830
De-Lovely
MGM
13,412,865
In America
Fox Searchlight
11,858,410
Super Size Me
IDP/Odeon
11,536,423
Girl with a Pearl Earring
Lions Gate
11,159,001
21 Grams
Focus
10,843,407
House of Sand and Fog
DmWks
10,094,363
The Motorcycle Diaries
Focus
9,697,572
Space Station
Imax
9,215,843
Bugs!
SK Film
9,190,673
Saved!
MGM
8,936,039
What the #$*! Do We Know
IDP
7,371,866
The Cooler
Lions Gate
6,900,809
Woman Thou Art Loosed
Magnolia 
6,697,014
The Triplets of Belleville
Sony Class/Alliance
6,536,791
Maria Full of Grace
NLC
6,486,431
Before Sunset
WB
5,815,569
The Clearing
Fox Searchlight
5,763,875
The Young Black Stallion
BV
5,216,516
Touching the Void
IFC
4,593,598
* none greater than 600 playdates | does not include 2003 grosses

Domestic Market Share: January 1 - November 4, 2004

Distributor (releases)
Gross (millions)
Percentage
Sony (21)
1177.7
15.20%
Warner Bros. (28)
923.9
11.90%
DreamWorks (11)
923.1
11.90%
Fox (16)
885.6
11.40%
Buena Vista (23)
739.1
9.60%
Universal (16)
667.3
8.60%
Paramount (14)
443.3
5.70%
Newmarket (6)
406.5
5.30%
New Line (15)
356.8
4.60%
Miramax (19)
306.9
4.00%
Lions Gate (24)
247.8
3.20%
MGM (14)
198.3
2.60%
Fox Searchlight (10)
140.1
1.80%
Focus (8)
101.7
1.30%
Alliance (18)
52.9
0.70%
Other * (209)
166.5
2.20%
* none greater than .5%
7737.5
100%

 

 

 

 

 


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