..Gary
Dretzka
..Leonard
Klady
..Emanuel
Levy
..David
Poland
..Doug
Pratt
..Ray
Pride
Weekend Estimates
The Second Coming
As blockbusters go The Passion of The Christ is heavenly, with second weekend business estimated at $52.4 million. The faithless anticipated sharp drops of between 50% and 60% but the biblical saga held exceedingly well at a 62% level, disproving the old industry adage that the bigger they open, the harder they drop.
The passion for the Mel Gibson film is one of those rare instances where predictive models simply do not apply. One would have to make quite a stretch to find a comparably themed movie as a yardstick. The religious thread of Bruce Almighty, for instance, is about as close as one gets to a recent popular success and noone's about to make a case contrasting the two films.
The film - with a current tally of $213 million - reached the second century mark in 12 days, a feat only three other films have done faster. It could surpass the indie b.o. champ My Big Fat Greek Wedding ($242 million as early as Friday) and, at this writing, exceed the benchmark by more than $100 million.
It's generally felt that a very significant contributor to the film's success has been the result of drawing out infrequent movie goers. Newmarket's Bob Berney said that opening weekend exit polls hadn't specifically looked at that element but it's part of the second weekend questionnaire. What was apparent from the initial exit poll was a strong indication of repeat business. "One of the most fascinating aspects for me in the response," said Berney, "was that people are framing it as if it were an election. They say, I voted for this film."
In Australia and New Zealand, initial reports show an even better hold with a drop of about 30% from the picture's first weekend.
The Passion of The Christ wasn't the only story of the past weekend, though it's overall impact was palpable. Two new films debuted with greater than anticipated strength and that certainly bolsters the thinking that Gibson's film is drawing heavily from a non-traditional audience.
Television refugees Starsky & Hutch were given an irreverent make over that translated into an excellent $29.2 million debut to rank second in the line-up. The hipster cops hit a peculiar nerve that blended nostalgia and parody to the delight and approval of those voting for lighter fare.
Disney's bygone horse race Hidalgo was also off at a gallop with an estimated $19.3 million. It was likely assisted by a revived family audience with limited options in the marketplace.
Overall business soared to a record March tally of close to $145 million that dipped a slim 8% from last weekend but exceeded 2003's performance level by 33%. A year ago, the top two films were both newcomers - Bringing Down the House with $31.1 million and Tears of the Sun grossing $17 million.
The frame was again sparse in the area of specialized and regional bows. Lions Gate debuted the family friendly survival drama Snow Walker in Canada to passable business of $46,000 at 20 locales. Paramount Classics' religious thriller The Reckoning was charitably OK with an $18,000 box office at five theaters.
With a general ferocity in the marketplace, the Academy Awards seem much more distant than the calendar would indicate. Still, Oscar anointed The Return of the King received a 48% boost with the addition of 790 theaters. The only other recipient of a statuette to get an utz was Monster with an 11% uptick. Mystic River held constant but such winners and contenders as Lost in Translation, The Fog of War, In America and Girl with a Pearl Earring also experienced modest declines.
Last week's freshmen titles had sharp declines of 50% or worse and the majority of recent releases are proving to have short-lived theatrical vitality. One exception is 50 First Dates that ranked fourth for the frame and nosed past $100 million on Sunday.
Weekend Estimates - March 5-7, 2004
Title % change Theaters Cume The Passion of the Christ -38% 3170 213 Starsky & Hutch 3185 29.2 Hidalgo 3063 18.7 50 First Dates -33% 3040 100.2 Twisted -47% 2703 16.1 Confessions of Teenage Drama Queen -38% 2180 21.7 Lord of the Rings: Return of King 48% 1903 368.3 Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights -49% 2042 10.1 Miracle -44% 1654 59.7 Monster 11% 1082 30.1 Mystic River 0% 1051 85.3 Eurotrip -60% 1602 15.7 Barbershop 2: Back in Business -48% 1264 59.8 Welcome to Mooseport -69% 1515 13.4 Cold Mountain -59% 750 94 Broken Lizard's Club Dread -77% 1807 4.5 The Butterfly Effect -56% 554 56.5 You Got Served -58% 442 38.9 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) % Change (Last Year) % Change (Last Week) Also Debuting/Expanding Snow Walker 20 0.05 The Reckoning 5 0.02
Top Worldwide Grossers - January 1 - March 4, 2004
Title Lord of the Rings: Return of the King 461,313,228 The Last Samurai 296,009,040 The Passion of the Christ 164,789,315 Something's Gotta Give 124,685,760 Cold Mountain 113,424,163 Cheaper by the Dozen 111,766,072 Along Came Polly 102,781,484 50 First Dates 91,711,242 Big Fish 79,971,252 Mona Lisa Smile 77,478,287 Brother Bear 72,043,970 Scary Movie 3 65,867,874 Lost in Translation 62,507,316 Peter Pan 59,822,568 Barbershop 2: Back in Business 58,203,525 The Haunted Mansion 58,132,115 Paycheck 58,081,642 Miracle 57,279,547 The Butterfly Effect 56,387,627 Master & Commander: Far Side of World 54,058,914 Love Actually 53,532,659 Mystic River 48,913,632 Silmido 46,221,054 Taegeugki 43,827,492 Calendar Girls 42,696,427 * does not include 2003 grosses Domestic Market Share - January 1 - March 4, 2004
Distributor (titles) Sony (9) 18.90% Newmarket (2) 12.90% New Line (6) 11.90% Fox (6) 8.70% Buena Vista (10) 8.60% Universal (6) 8.30% Warner Bros. (10) 7.40% Miramax (10) 6.40% MGM (3) 4.00% Paramount (6) 3.90% DreamWorks (3) 2.80% Focus (2) 1.60% Lions Gate (5) 1.60% Fox Searchlight (2) 1.10% Sony Classics (5) 0.60% Other * (58) 1.30% *none greater than .4% 100.00%
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