..Gary
Dretzka
..Leonard
Klady
..Emanuel
Levy
..David
Poland
..Doug
Pratt
..Ray
Pride
Weekend Finals
So Good, So Far
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King rang in the first weekend of 2004 with an estimated $28.9 million and a cumulative domestic gross of $290.6 million that led the frame to a record for an annual debut. The final installment of the Tolkien trilogy is maintaining a slightly better pace than The Two Towers both in North America and internationally and with excellent Oscar prospects could push toward an eventual $400 million box office.
Typically, there were no new national debuts and those films that had been playing both well and poorly continued to variously soar and struggle. Overall box office for the weekend should ring in with approximately $145 million for a 23% decline from the prior weekend. It's also roughly 13% better than the start of 2003 when the second chapter of The Rings grossed $25 million and Catch Me If You Can followed with $21.1 million.
Initial tallies for the calendar year total slightly more than $9.2 billion and that would indicate a very slim box office boost of 4/10th of 1% from 2002 and a 4% decline in admissions. Other reports comparing last year's 52 week span to the prior year's 53 week reporting period saw a small box office downturn. However, since 1989, the most salient factors are admission upturns and declines in average production and marketing costs that occurred respectively twice, once and never. Were it not for new ancillary revenue streams and growing overseas markets, the overall industry picture would be very grim.
Though there was a paucity of new movies, Buena Vista effectively expanded its lively Brit import Calendar Girls and cracked the top 10 with a $4.5 million weekend. While hardly a dynamo, the film is doing exceptionally well for a movie of its ilk (think The Full Monty or Bend It Like Beckham) and that could cement perhaps a couple of nominations when the Oscar ballot is announced in a couple of weeks.
Other current limited releases including In America, 21 Grams and House of Sand and Fog are truly struggling and desperately hoping for Academy recognition to provide a commercial second wind. Next weekend Big Fish - which has been performing extremely well in semi-exclusive release - expands nationally. It's worth noting that historically more than 70% of Oscar ballots are returned within 72 hours of receipt by members. However, given the abbreviated award season it's likely that percentage will decline this year.
Apart from the Hobbits, comedy has emerged as the seasonal trump card with both the inane Cheaper by the Dozen and the adult appeal Something's Gotta Give poised to gross more than $100 million. The Thanksgiving entry The Cat in the Hat is also on the cusp of that figure and there's little doubt that The Last Samurai will trudge to that level. In the latter two instance one can only repeat the significance ancillary revenues have in putting a picture into profit for a studio.
The most conspicuous causality remains Mona Lisa Smile, especially as its overseas prospects are soft and a great big question mark looms over Cold Mountain. The latter film is unquestionably playing the Oscar card as - apart from Golden Globe nominations - it's yet to find favor from year end critics group lists.
Japanese Story, the winner of the Australian Oscar, nipped in as an Oscar qualifier but was a commercial also ran with a $17,000 weekend in five locations. It palled beside a trio of movies that are currently creating buzz in semi-exclusive release including Monster, Girl with a Pearl Earring and The Company. Again, the future of those films will largely be shaped by award recognition and none has very good across the board prospects. Still, Monster has to benefit from Charlize Theron's performance that's sure to be vying for Oscar voter's hearts against the individual and career achievement work of Diane Keaton in Something's Gotta Give.
Also stay tuned for year end charts for top grosser and market share in the next week.
Weekend Finals - January 2-4, 2004
Title Lord of the Rings: Return of the King 28,180,378 -44% 3703 290,410,961 Cheaper by the Dozen 21,644,537 -22% 3307 85,620,095 Something's Gotta Give 11,705,123 -15% 2808 81,211,676 Cold Mountain 11,579,747 -21% 2216 43,737,222 Paycheck 9,837,313 -27% 2762 38,644,452 Peter Pan 8,818,715 -21% 2813 34,179,235 Mona Lisa Smile 8,300,794 -27% 2714 50,006,766 The Last Samurai 7,373,719 -11% 2401 90,017,337 Calendar Girls 4,437,082 1019% 745 6,953,194 Bad Santa 2,937,737 -35% 1710 56,909,596 Stuck on You 2,802,420 -23% 2064 30,721,406 Big Fish 2,544,450 24% 125 8,454,208 The Haunted Mansion 2,506,251 -12% 1501 70,422,751 Elf 2,303,567 -41% 1768 170,837,644 Love Don't Cost a Thing 1,921,466 -35% 1015 20,179,317 House of Sand and Fog 1,788,293 4% 442 5,383,663 21 Grams 1,340,872 9% 289 7,272,165 In America 1,229,445 15% 327 5,305,891 Master and Commander 1,117,880 -4% 701 83,006,144 Honey 1,071,845 -24% 672 28,816,190 The Cat in the Hat 988,295 -22% 1057 99,383,495 The Young Black Stallion 755,381 20% 51 2,349,976 Love Actually 732,755 -12% 406 57,429,915 Brother Bear 529,059 4% 532 83,297,298 Lost in Translation 499,543 37% 123 31,586,561 Mystic River 409,678 26% 201 58,224,334 Gothika 375,661 -38% 406 57,455,180 The Cooler 340,002 10% 77 1,836,224 The Triplets of Belleville 300,531 49% 45 1,224,065 The School of Rock 264,606 2% 237 80,232,030 Monster 230,642 166% 14 455,848 Looney Toons: Back in Action 223,096 18% 336 20,678,510 Girl with a Pearl Earring 210,348 11% 26 865,240 Radio 188,136 -9% 193 51,801,566 Matrix Revolutions 186,142 -24% 116 138,294,428 Nez rouge 166,598 -10% 44 1,698,108 Scary Movie 3 157,996 -4% 201 109,563,395 Santa vs. the Snowman 144,832 -35% 35 2,833,643 The Station Agent 143,998 10% 106 4,853,898 The Missing 116,290 -14% 146 26,121,804 Under the Tuscan Sun 111,625 10% 158 43,323,006 The Barbarian Invasions 103,856 16% 52 5,897,378 The Company 92,139 -2% 11 316,013 L.O.C. (Kargil) 83,678 -63% 56 587,978 The Fog of War 81,427 40% 6 276,427 Underworld 79,990 1% 103 51,892,664 Space Station 71,565 -61% 12 46,173,527 Runaway Jury 69,006 -11% 110 49,022,597 Freaky Friday 57,758 -21% 106 110,180,505 The Statement 57,219 1% 17 280,167 Alexander's Project 56,803 31% 10 217,694 Annie Brocoli dans les fonds marin 49,604 2% 33 291,844 The Texas Chainsaw Massacre 44,905 27% 53 80,288,112 Kill Bill Vol. 1 40,164 12% 38 69,655,060 Timeline 34,156 -31% 270 19,113,328 Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over 32,270 3% 44 111,678,621 My Architect 28,984 51% 4 366,039 Blizzard 27,691 -13% 45 504,600 Shattered Glass 26,225 5% 35 2,105,024 Bugs! 26,187 56% 13 4,374,388 Japanese Story 23,962 5 32,699 Intolerable Cruelty 22,510 -1% 24 35,296,248 Kal Ho Naa Ho 22,414 -57% 15 1,936,933 Pieces of April 21,413 18% 19 2,397,565 Elephant 17,941 -1% 13 1,257,377 Ghosts of the Abyss 17,765 2% 6 15,283,482
Weekend Estimates - January 2-4, 2004
Title Lord of the Rings: Return of King -43% 3703 290.6 Cheaper By the Dozen -21% 3307 86.1 Something's Gotta Give -11% 2808 81.4 Cold Mountain -19% 2216 43.9 Paycheck -25% 2762 38.9 Peter Pan -24% 2813 33.8 Mona Lisa Smile -25% 2714 49.9 The Last Samurai -13% 2401 89.8 Calendar Girls 1033% 745 7.1 Stuck on You -18% 2064 30.5 Bad Santa -39% 1710 56.7 Big Fish 21% 125 8.4 Haunted Mansion -17% 1501 70.3 Elf -40% 1768 170.9 Love Don't Cost a Thing -27% 1015 20.5 House of Sand and Fog 6% 442 5.2 21 Grams 16% 289 7.3 In America 14% 327 5.3 Master and Commander