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Weekend Estimates
Screener Saga Continues
Worldwide Grosses
Market Share
With a Little Elf from My Friends
Were there
Gremlins at play at American movie theaters this weekend?
If one listened
to industry prognosticators that would have to be the conclusion
as New Line's Elf outdistanced the competition to rank
first with an estimated $27 million. There were also surprises
- good and bad - for the debuts of Master and Commander: The
Far Side of the World, Looney Toons: Back in Action and second
weekend returns on Matrix Revolutions and Love Actually.
Following
a robust debut, Elf clearly infected crowds with seasonal
cheeriness. The combination of the hip and the cornball demonstrated
a wider than anticipated appeal that translated into a very sturdy
hold of -13%. The film is now expected to do at least $150 million
and likely more if it can withstand holiday competition.
Just a breath
behind was Fox's launch of Master and Commander with $25.8
million. The adaptation of Patrick O'Brian's books about
British seamen during the Napoleonic era led the pack opening
day with, again, stronger than anticipated results. Fox had steered
the picture into this particular calendar berth with prospects
of a $20 million debut that would be second to Matrix Revolutions.
They were pleased to be wrong on the first count and a studio
spokesman said its robust performance could be the result of strong
response from women. Initial exit polls in selected markets indicated
a 52%-48% male-female audience.
Overall weekend
business should tally out to roughly $136 million representing
a 12% drop from seven days earlier. It was also down from 2002
by 22% when the second installment of the Harry Potter
series stormed in with $88.4 million.
The weekend
also saw two other national debuts including Paramount's non-fiction
Tupac: Resurrection with a $5 million gross that ranked
it eighth overall. The film played out like a concert film and
should ultimately find its greatest success in ancillaries.
The commercial
diagnosis for WB's Looney Toons: Back in Action was less
optimistic. The pricey live action-animated family film bowed
with about $9.4 million following a full-bore advertising blitz.
It provided the industry head scratcher, performing considerably
below the studio's similarly ambitious Space Jam from 1996
despite generally positive reviews. It could well be one of 2003's
worst commercial misfires.
The Burbank
crowd was also rocked by a 67% decline for its third Matrix. Despite
a critical drubbing, a better hold was expected and unless holiday
business provides the film with a second commercial wind it could
wind up grossing 50% of The Matrix Reloaded domestic gross.
Universal
roughly doubled its theater count on Love Actually and
saw its box office climb by 28% and maintain a hardy per engagement
average. Continued expansions will be more cautious as the studio
continues to maximize on excellent word-of-mouth.
Niche debuts
and expansions were limited in the current crowded and highly
competitive marketplace. New Yorker had very good response to
My Architect with roughly $37,000 generated from two Manhattan
engagements but IDP's Anything But Love grossed a disappointing
$25,000 from 16 venues.
Screeners:
The Saga Continues
Expect an
official announcement Monday from the Motion Picture Association
of America that no further compromise on its anti-screener policy
will be forthcoming this year.
Los Angeles
Film Critics Ass. President Jean Oppenheimer received a
call Friday afternoon from the MPAA's Jack Valenti informing
her that meetings with studio reps failed to render a method of
distributing tapes to other than Academy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences members that satisfied piracy concerns. An earlier
conversation with Valenti also indicated a seemingly insurmountable
logistical problem. He could not see a way of duplicating potentially
thousands of VHS tapes (that have to be processed in real time)
in time to meet the needs of critics groups and industry guilds
award schedules.
LAFCA may
revisit its decision to cancel its annual awards or postpone voting
into 2004. There's also speculation of another vote on the issue
by the National Society of Film Critics that earlier narrowly
passed a motion to continue its annual process.
Another prospect
now that the MPAA has consulted with aggrieved groups and found
no further compromise is legal action. Both the British Academy
and Independent Feature Project have mentioned the possibility
of taking the issue to the courts but an extremely clever legal
angle would have to be formulated to ensure that the issue wasn't
summarily tossed out of chambers.
The MPAA intention
of demonstrating to federal legislators that it was prepared to
clean up its own house appears to have miserably backfired. Dissention
within the ranks and among the wider film industry population
has escalated to fever pitch. Meanwhile, in D.C. members of Congress
and the Senate are looking upon the situation as an industry in
disarray that does not speak with a single voice.
- by Leonard
Klady
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