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Weekend Estimates
It’s a Product Driven Marketplace...
Touchstone’s Bringing Down the House earned the hat trick, remaining at the top of the weekend box office for a third consecutive frame with an estimated $16.7 million. The raucous comedy - a yarn of stark urban contrasts - has obviously hit a nerve and the collective audience funny bone to ring up more than $80 million in 17 days of release.
Warner Bros.’ highly anticipated Dreamcatcher was in second place with a softish $15.5 million debut. The chiller from the Stephen King canon had some requisite fright but came up short in overall thrills. Curiously its menacing weasels come on the heels of Willard’s rats from last weekend.
Overall business for the three-day Oscar weekend will likely be just shy of $100 million. It translates into an 8% shrinkage from seven days earlier and a precipitous fall of 26% from 2002 when Blade 2 came in with a blazing $32.5 million. However, neither the distraction of Academy Awards nor the compelling, hypnotic and horrifying images of war explain away a general apathy toward new and continuing product. It’s clearly the available choices that are the cause of the current slump.
The remaining incoming movies performed to mediocre or worse response. Miramax’s inane comedy View From the Top ranked fourth with $7.6 million befitting programmer fare but with considerably less verve than one associates with a star-driven cast. Disney knockoff animated fare Piglet’s Big Movie generated an ironic $6.3 million and Artisan’s acquisition of the long on the shelf low concept comedy Boat Trip squeaked into 10th spot with $3.6 million.
Nearly three months into the new year, just three films are primed to hit a vaunted $100 million gross - Bringing Down the House, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days and Daredevil. The first two titles have been unexpected surprises and the last of the trio reps a marketing juggernaut to sustain a potential franchise. I’m uncertain whether studio green lighters will glean any valuable lessons from this data - good concepts, good scripts, shrewd casting _ or come to the wrong conclusions or simply scratch their heads and pull the trigger on more undistinguished entertainment.
Once again holdover fare saw sharper downturns for action and stunts and, marking on the curve, better holds for lighter stuff. It has to give pause to anyone attempting to make serious subject matter, though just getting it made in the current corporate climate has to be considered a victory.
With the Oscars just hours away, the landscape for contenders shapes up commercially as a win for Chicago and the rest of the field in rapid retreat. Such films as The Hours, About Schmidt and even The Quiet American and Talk to Her have lost a significant number of playdates and, even should The Pianist or Far from Heaven generate surprising kudo power, considerable (possibly impossible) effort will be required to create a second wind at the box office.
The only specialized/regional debut of any consequence for the frame was the Quebec launch of French farce L’Auberge Espagnol. It grossed $80,000 from 17 screens. Fox Searchlight added two venues (and 16 unreported test engagements) on Bend It Like Beckham and maintained a sturdy $190,000 gross on eight. Zeitgeist’s Oscar-touted Nowhere in Africa also held firm with close to $100,000 for the weekend.
Tick … tick … tick
With the envelopes about to be unsealed, one has to say that artistically the winner at Oscar 2003 is the documentary feature category. The level of excellence in the category clearly out distances its fictional brothers. Though labels don’t fully reflect the nature of the nominees, the slate embraces quite a breadth of field.
The Prisoner of Paradise reflects an archival tradition while Winged Migration is steeped in the ethnographic heritage. High profile Bowling for Columbine is a social commentary and Spellbound recalls the cinema verite style. Regardless of the outcome, any one of the quartet is worthy of recognition and commercial support.
Saturday’s Independent Spirit Awards produced a couple of surprise and deserving winners (most noticeably Derek Luke of the generally forgotten in the shuffle Antwone Fisher). Still, it remains an honor that largely tilts toward commercial favorites, deserving or not. The underdog - the sector’s supposed mascot - is confined to the dog house when winners are announced and special citations such as The Someone to Watch category are excised from broadcasts in favor of the star power in attendance (non-attendee and winner Nia Vardolous gets short shrift).
The award and its sponsor the Independent Feature Project continue to struggle with remaining the mainstream alternative and embracing popular choices to maintain corporate financing that fuels its budget.
Weekend Finals - March 21-23, 2003
Title Weekend Bringing Down the House 16,349,134 -27% 2871 83,349,134 Dreamcatcher 15,027,423 - 2945 15,027,423 Agent Cody Banks 9,227,614 -34% 3369 26,531,584 View From the Top 7,009,513 - 2508 7,009,513 The Hunted 6,510,154 -52% 2517 23,390,799 Chicago 6,176,021 -13% 2565 134,014,534 Piglet's Big Movie 6,097,758 - 2084 6,097,758 Tears of the Sun 4,435,782 -49% 2810 37,921,775 Old School 3,904,358 -42% 2033 66,960,634 Boat Trip 3,815,075 - 1714 3,815,075 How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days 2,946,064 -37% 1840 98,256,960 Daredevil 1,419,555 -53% 1405 98,402,763 Willard 1,402,650 -65% 1762 6,243,789 Cradle 2 the Grave 1,033,473 -65% 1242 33,546,248 The Hours 1,002,679 -20% 628 38,888,533 The Pianist 1,268,454 -21% 540 19,581,273 The Jungle Book 2 968,099 -62% 1214 45,494,081 About Schmidt 845,427 -23% 533 62,908,447 The Quiet American 801,909 -19% 372 9,854,961 Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 768,554 -17% 518 334,790,872 Shanghai Knights 668,280 -57% 628 58,460,160 The Gangs of New York 566,576 14% 567 77,021,614 Catch Me If You Can 364,361 42% 378 163,321,694 Adaptation 290,405 -12% 169 21,523,932 Final Destination 2 271,195 -58% 326 46,100,642 The Life of David Gale 261,225 -71% 302 19,415,560 The Recruit 237,324 -65% 287 51,988,750 The Lion King (Large Format) 236,454 -24% 61 14,675,315 Far from Heaven 230,799 2% 125 15,588,212 City of God 224,168 -21% 106 2,756,619 Talk to Her 207,773 -16% 142 7,786,091 Bend It Like Beckham 178,076 10% 8 437,865 Frida 169,433 -27% 142 25,118,058 Space Station 164,856 -17% 36 34,477,760 Gods and Generals 163,852 -75% 226 12,631,552 Just Married 160,405 -23% 211 55,531,525 Bowling for Columbine 148,382 2% 106 18,722,164 Rabbit-Proof Fence 142,086 -17% 97 5,608,829 Laurel Canyon 134,283 -38% 19 658,160 Two Weeks Notice 122,065 -20% 163 92,995,332 Spider 160,523 -29% 54 824,215 The Wild Thornberrys 113,142 18% 232 39,598,398 Nowhere in Africa 111,495 27% 16 263,978 Kangaroo Jack 108,774 -69% 216 65,708,774 Biker Boyz 104,084 -15% 149 21,701,045 Deliver Us From Eva 101,887 -57% 106 17,334,912 Maid in Manhattan 100,897 -26% 136 93,705,277 Harry Potter: Chamber of Secrets 86,725 -29% 151 261,724,299 Drumline 75,478 -24% 93 56,178,945 Russian Ark 73,264 -11% 22 1,480,367 Irreversible 65,272 -41% 26 328,212 Darkness Falls 63,883 -56% 67 32,131,483 Antwone Fisher 59,978 -28% 94 20,910,036 The R.M. 59,063 94% 24 652,893 L'Auberge Espagnole 57,692 11 57,692 The Guru 44,585 -56% 49 2,949,551 Help! I'm a Fish 41,338 22% 34 404,782 Shackleton's Antarctic Adventure 39,316 2% 10 14,274,874 He Loves Me, He Loves Me Not 38,301 -28% 15 566,852 Amandla! 38,016 -10% 16 229,711 The Hot Chick 37,898 -29% 59 35,016,147 Rivers and Tides 32,168 8% 15 1,174,409 T-Rex: Back to the Cretaceous 27,082 -12% 3 42,506,579 Star Wars, Episode 1 25,620 86% 7 310,619,851 25th Hour 23,850 -34% 20 12,935,501 The Safety of Objects 23,848 -69% 19 249,554 Dark Blue 20,037 -89% 55 9,165,378 All the Real Girls 19,979 13% 10 246,806 Weekend Estimates - March 21-23, 2003
Title % change Theaters Cume Bring Down the House -24% 2871 83.8 Dreamcatcher - 2945 16.1 Agent Cody Banks -35% 3369 26.4 View From the Top - 2508 7.7 Chicago -10% 2565 134 Piglet's Big Movie - 2084 6.7 The Hunted -55% 2517 23 Tears of the Sun -47% 2810 38.1 Old School -42% 2033 67 Boat Trip - 1714 3.6 How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days -32% 1840 98.5 Daredevil -50% 1405 98.4 Willard -65% 1762 6.3 Cradle 2 the Grave -56% 1242 33.8 The Hours -14% 628 38.9 The Pianist -16% 540 19.7 The Jungle Book 2 -64% 1214 45.4 About Schmidt -18% 533 62.9 The Quiet American -16% 372 9.9 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers -23% 518 334.8 Shanghai Knights -58% 628 58.4 The Gangs of New York 25% 567 77.1 - Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) - % Change (Last Year) - % Change (Last Week) - Also Debuting/Expanding