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Weekend Estimates
… And the Oscar for best box office goes to ...
With the announcement of 2002 nominees just three day away, the luster of the golden statuette hasn’t quite rubbed off on potential nominees. The prospect of Miramax’s Chicago dancing away with the weekend failed to materialize as freshmen entries Paramount’s How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days and Shanghai Knights via Buena Vista out sang the contender.
Both newcomers were perceived as out performing Chicago with industry tracking that projected each grossing between $18 million and $20 million and the musical having a box office of $14 million to $16 million in its belated national launch. However, the prognosticators fared better with the debutants, with How to Lose a Guy leading the pack with at estimated $24 million, Knights on target with $19.7 million and Chicago a disappointing third at $10.6 million.
It’s been a particularly harsh awards season commercially with arguably only About Schmidt experiencing the sort of boost prestige pictures are supposed to get from being part of the race. Of the rest, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers has become such a phenomenon that it’s difficult to ascribe increased revenues to its Oscar chances. The Hours began strong but has continued to lose ground as it waits out the announcements, The Pianist is just hanging in and such films as Adaptation, Antwone Fisher and Far from Heaven have seen both the prospect of mainstream success and multiple nominations in major categories evaporate.
Of course, there’s still the possibility of a second wind following Tuesday’s revelations but whereas past years have seen an almost organic flow, this year will take considerably more effort to couple award glory with box office success. The decision to expand Chicago timed to Oscar announcements rather than to Golden Globe honors has been costly for the picture, blunting its final tally and upping the marketing budget. However, with $63 million already in the till it has a decidedly easier route to $100 million than The Hours that’s just nudging toward $22 million.
The weekend also saw a solid bow for Focus Feature’s urban comedy Deliver Us From Eva in sixth spot with $6.8 million. Still, it’s curious that Focus opted for Eva and not The Guru that was handled by its big sisters at Universal. One’s gut feeling is that both pictures would have benefited had the arrangement been flip-flopped.
The frame’s only other debuts included Eros Entertainment’s Hindi-language Khushi (estimate unavailable) and Alliance’s social comedy Comment ma mere accoucha de moi durant sa menopause (What my Mother Told Me During Her Menopause) in Quebec. The latter had just fair response with about $150,000 from 39 venues.
Despite strong openings, the marketplace continues to be awash with a high volume of films doing middling business. Overall business should climb to roughly $120 million for a 16% boost from the comparable 2002 weekend and a modest 4% increase from seven days earlier.
Weekend Estimates - February 7-9, 2003
Title How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days - 2923 24 Shanghai Knights - 2753 19.7 Chicago 51% 1841 63.6 The Recruit -43% 2376 29.9 Final Destination 2 -46% 2834 28.1 Deliver Us from Eva - 1139 6.8 Kangaroo Jack -34% 2848 52.9 Biker Boyz -60% 1766 15.9 Darkness Falls -45% 2869 26.8 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers -31% 1680 320.9 About Schmidt -32% 1240 48.5 Catch Me If You Can -41% 1744 156.4 Just Married -56% 1796 52.7 The Hours -33% 549 21.7 National Security -66% 1569 34.7 Dangerous Mind -69% 1376 14.4 My Big Fat Greek Wedding -34% 956 240 The Gangs of New York -57% 891 70.1 The Pianist -19% 328 8.7 Adaptation -35% 415 17 The Lion King (Large Format) -19% 66 11.5 Antwone Fisher -51% 422 19.8 The Quiet American - 44 1.3 Die Another Day -17% 827 160.2 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) - - - % Change (Last Year) - - % Change (Last Week) - - -- Also Debuting/Expanding The Guru -46% 62 1.1 Talk to Her -14% 85 4.7 City of God -21% 26 0.95 Comment me mere accoucha… -- 39 0.15
Top Domestic Grossers - January 1- February 6, 2003
Distributor (titles) New Line (4) 161.3 19.00% Warner Bros. (5) 107.8 12.70% Miramax (12) 106 12.50% DreamWorks (4) 104.6 12.30% Sony (9) 98.8 11.70% Fox (4) 67.1 7.90% Buena Vista (10) 57.8 6.80% Paramount (6) 53.1 6.30% MGM (7) 29.7 3.50% Fox Searchlight (2) 15.6 1.80% IFC (2) 15.1 1.80% Focus (2) 9.9 1.20% Other * (45) 20.6 2.50% 847.4 100.00% * none greater than .6%
