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Weekend Finals
Nature Abhors a Vacuum?
2002 International Market Share
2002 Top International Grossers
2002 Top Domestic Grossers

Pray for Darkness.

That may have been the consensus going into the weekend, but Sony’s Darkness Falls ascended to the forefront of weekend moviegoing with an estimated $12.7 million debut. The cheapie horror yarn filmed in Australia (subbing for New England) by Revolution Studios was viewed as a casualty of war in the current crowded marketplace following dire industry tracking results that pegged its commercial prospects at less than $4 million.

There’s much to be written about the film industry’s reliance on antiquated tracking studies that have seriously miscalculated the popular appeal of this film and the past two weekend chart toppers - Kangaroo Jack and Just Married. However, for the moment, let’s simply say that the folks that predict Presidential elections fare infinitely better in the prognosticating business than the National Research Group that has a virtual monopoly in this area for movies, and whose methodology appears to have gotten worse in the past two decades.

Directed by Jeff Liebesman and co-produced by William Sherak (son of Revolution partner Tom), Darkness Falls was technically the sole film to wade in against the formidable competition of Super Bowl weekend. The hope that the film would score reasonable numbers and bring back its investment has blossomed into much more … maybe even a franchise.

Despite the formidable football challenge, weekend business should exceed $100 million and exceed the comparable 2002 weekend by 2 percent. However, by the calendar (the Super Bowl was delayed a week last year), film biz shank 23% to the late January 2002 frame when A Walk to Remember, The Count of Monte Cristo and The Mothman Prophecies each bowed in the $11 million to $12 million range.

The primary curiosity of the weekend was Miramax’s decision to expand Confessions of a Dangerous Mind and delay the national launch of its much-ballyhooed Chicago until February 7. The caveat was the addition of sneak previews of the latter with the former in markets where it’s yet to debut. Abetted by the strategy, Dangerous Mind had a tepid $5.7 million launch and the company will have to do ponder whether it squandered an opportunity by not expanding Chicago cued to its Golden Globes glory.

Buena Vista also took the opportunity to sneak preview its Shanghai Knights, a sequel to its fish out of water Western comedy that casts Jackie Chan and Owen Wilson in yet another pond as alien fish in London. It had very good exits but it’s odd to go this route for a sequel that already has audience awareness.

Two other Globe winners and Oscar contenders - About Schmidt and The Hours - continued modest expansions. Schmidt added 300 theaters and maintained a healthy screen average as it continues to work in both upscale and heartland engagements. The Hours with 100 new engagements saw its screen average halved and will have to tough it out for several more weeks and hope Oscar nominations will pave the way for an onslaught on multiplex venues.

Quite a number of films are sweating out the announcement of the Oscar slate. And, while The Pianist, Antwone Fisher, The Gangs of New York and Far from Heaven are holding their own against obviously more popular fare, several of those titles are reliant on Academy recognition on several levels. Recognition in key categories for those films will determine not only whether current engagements can be maintained but, in several instances, whether films will receive national launches. It’s vital as all are banking on a second wind.

Limited and regional debuts included Purple Rose’s comic Super Sucker starring Jeff Daniels (below), opening in 125 Michigan venues to a lackluster $100,000. In exclusives, Sony Classics’ Blind Spot: Hitler’s Secretary - one of 11 films short-listed in Oscar’s feature documentary category - grossed an upbeat $8,500 on a single screen while Kino’s Holocaust-themed Amen had no better than fair results with $13,500 at three sites. Amen, centering on Vatican complicity during the war, has been considerably more controversial and commercial in its European debuts.

Nature Abhors a Vacuum?

Purple Rose, Jeff Daniels’ Michigan-based production-distribution entity, is one of the true oddities on the film scene. An offshoot of the actor’s same-named regional live theater, it segued into film production three years ago with the quirky comedy Escanaba in Da Moonlight. Daniels had hoped that effort would be snapped up for acquisition but when everyone passed he decided to self-distribute and generate good word and good box office in hopes of a second look.

Escanaba bowed regionally in 2001 and opening weekend business was excellent. And while several companies indeed re-examined the pictures, none bit. Meanwhile, Purple Rose continued to add theaters regionally and eventually generated a box office of more than $2 million.

Theatrical returns coupled with video and cable sales allowed him to go back to his original investors with another project, a yarn of competing door-to-door vacuum cleaner salesmen. Opening this weekend under the title Super Suckers (tag line: It doesn’t blow, it sucks), it failed to meet the commercial standard of Escanaba, generating an average of less than $1,000 per engagement. Still, one has to applaud Daniels’ efforts to make off-Hollywood fare not geared for the art house circuit with economic restraint and an independent spirit.

Weekend Finals - January 24-26, 2003

		Title	Distrib	Weekend	% Change	Theaters	Cume	Wks
1	New	Darkness Falls	Sony	12,024,917	-	2837	12,024,917	1
2	1	Kangaroo Jack	WB	11,548,247	-30%	2848	35,112,415	2
3	6	Chicago	Miramax	8,238,709	8%	629	40,386,310	5
4	2	National Security	Sony	7,308,966	-49%	2729	26,040,534	2
5	5	Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	New Line	6,611,705	-36%	2666	308,821,306	7
6	4	Catch Me If You Can	DreamWorks	6,501,059	-39%	2776	144,962,124	5
7	3	Just Married	Fox	6,482,600	-45%	2705	43,353,177	3
8	44	Confessions of a Dangerous Mind	Miramax	5,833,052	-6%	1769	6,332,676	4
9	8	About Schmidt	New Line	5,382,302	-5%	1236	37,745,475	8
10	9	The Hours	Par	3,934,284	-15%	502	13,868,754	5
11	7	A Guy Thing	MGM	3,363,857	-52%	2520	12,300,001	2
12	11	The Gangs of New York	Miramax	2,764,424	-26%	1905	65,377,894	6
13	10	Two Weeks Notice	WB	2,402,271	-40%	1858	88,824,947	6
14	15	My Big Fat Greek Wedding	IFC	1,704,430	-22%	1143	236,448,697	41
15	13	Antwone Fisher	Fox Searchlight	1,670,328	-40%	970	17,141,521	6
16	12	Maid in Manhattan	Sony	1,553,854	-50%	1433	91,082,447	7
17	14	25th Hour	BV	1,433,215	-37%	490	9,586,594	6
18	17	Adaptation	Sony	1,406,390	-23%	564	14,252,147	7
19	16	Narc	Par	1,332,607	-31%	822	8,535,636	6
20	21	The Pianist	Focus/TVA	1,206,060	10%	308	5,827,926	5
21	19	Harry Potter: Chamber of Secrets	WB	778,462	-45%	783	258,898,102	11
22	22	The Lion King (Large Format)	BV	756,575	-17%	66	9,631,511	5
23	23	Die Another Day	MGM	713,007	-23%	965	158,626,849	10
24	20	Drumline	Fox	678,496	-52%	691	54,493,593	8
25	18	The Wild Thornberrys	Par	559,997	-59%	1272	38,416,122	6
26	31	Talk to Her	Sny Class/Seville	359,558	13%	82	3,822,628	10
27	25	Far from Heaven	Focus	310,585	-28%	231	13,144,266	13
28	32	Rabbit-Proof Fence	Miramax	291,338	2%	118	2,982,691	9
29	28	The Ring	DreamWorks	251,963	-27%	332	128,288,631	15
30	30	Frida	Miramax	241,668	-24%	163	22,832,704	13
31	26	Treasure Planet	BV	237,017	-36%	422	37,486,727	9
32	29	Bowling for Columbine	MGM/Alliance	202,195	-38%	188	16,828,908	16
33	24	The Hot Chick	BV	185,815	-67%	323	33,858,304	7
34	42	City of God	Miramax	171,165	94%	18	326,825	2
35	39	Space Station	Imax	170,978	20%	42	31,194,582	41
36	35	Nicholas Nickelby	MGM	169,942	-2%	96	1,031,668	5
37	34	8 Mile	Uni	134,625	-29%	207	116,134,915	12
38	27	Star Trek: Nemesis	Par	130,297	-68%	652	42,692,175	7
39	36	Sweet Home Alabama	BV	112,157	-35%	182	126,868,642	18
40	37	Seraphin, un homme et son peche	Alliance	110,535	-32%	59	5,959,920	9
41	33	The Santa Clause 2	BV	93,438	-48%	223	139,136,759	13
42	New	Super Sucker	Purple Rose	89,551	-	115	89,551	1
43	38	The Crime of Padre Amaro	IDP	89,422	-42%	65	5,168,418	10
44	60	Max	Lions Gate/Odeon	79,917	199%	41	238,344	5
45	43	The Quiet American	Miramax	64,276	-22%	8	629,308	10
46	40	Empire	Uni	63,715	-39%	98	17,504,595	8
47	98	They	Miramax	56,702	448%	101	12,785,216	9
48	N/A	Dil Ka Rishtaa	Tips	52,170	-70%	18	306,530	2
49	N/A	Half Past Dead	Sony	50,954	-	84	15,425,866	12
50	54	Russian Ark	Wellspring	49,011	43%	6	407,482	7
51	New	Dum	Eros	46,700	-	18	46,700	1
52	45	Real Women Have Curves	Newmarket	46,001	-35%	75	5,677,043	14
53	41	Analyze That	WB	44,982	-58%	77	31,824,063	8
54	91	Charly	Excel	43,227	554%	33	655,471	18
55	50	Evelyn	MGM	32,936	-18%	49	1,341,151	6
56	46	Friday After Next	New Line	29,122	-45%	71	32,872,566	10
57	48	Eight Crazy Nights	Sony	29,016	-41%	81	23,607,202	9
58	88	Tully	Small Planet	26,511	309%	13	301,907	12
59	56	Star Wars, Episode 1	Fox	25,744	-28%	8	310,426,981	37
60	63	Intacto	Lions Gate	25,402	16%	31	230,798	6
61	48	Manna from Heaven	Five Sisters	24,881	-44%	8	153,036	26
62	59	Cirque du Soleil - Journey of Man	Sony Classics	24,127	3%	5	14,832,615	133
63	61	Standing in Shadow of Motown	Artisan	24,118	-4%	42	1,475,201	11
64	55	The Emperor's Club	Uni	23,850	-33%	53	14,060,950	10
65	49	Ghost Ship	WB	23,560	-50%	51	30,113,491	14
66	64	Secretary	Lions Gate	22,427	7%	19	3,984,601	18

Weekend Estimates - January 24-26, 2003

Title	Distributor	Gross (average)	% change	Theaters	Cume
Darkness Falls	Sony	12.7 (4,470)	-	2837	12.7
Kangaroo Jack	WB	11.5 (4,040)	-31%	2848	35.1
Chicago	Miramax	8.5 (13,480)	12%	629	40.6
National Security	Sony	7.5 (2,750)	-48%	2729	26.3
Lord of the Rings: Two Towers	New Line	6.8 (2,540)	-34%	2666	309
Catch Me If You Can	DreamWorks	6.7 (2,420)	-37%	2776	145.2
Just Married	Fox	6.7 (2,480)	-43%	2705	40.3
Dangerous Mind	Miramax	5.8 (3,310)	-	1769	6.3
About Schmidt	New Line	5.6 (4,540)	-2%	1236	37.8
The Hours	Par	3.9 (7,860)	-15%	402	13.9
A Guy Thing	MGM	3.3 (1,320)	-52%	2520	12.2
The Gangs of New York	Miramax	2.9 (1,540)	-21%	1905	65.4
Two Weeks Notice	WB	2.5 (1,370)	-37%	1858	88.9
Antwone Fisher	Searchlight	1.8 (1,890)	-34%	971	17.3
My Big Fat Greek Wedding	IFC	1.7 (1,500)	-21%	1143	236.5
Maid in Manhattan	Sony	1.6 (1,130)	-48%	1433	91.1
25th Hour	BV	1.5 (3,090)	-33%	495	9.7
Adaptation	Sony	1.5 (2,670)	-18%	564	14.4
Narc	Par	1.3 (1,560)	-34%	822	8.5
The Pianist	Focus/TVA	1.2 (3,950)	-5%	308	5.8
Harry Potter: Chamber of Secrets	WB	.71 (910)	-50%	783	258.8
Die Another Day	MGM	.68 (700)	-27%	965	158.6
Drumline	Fox	.66 (950)	-55%	694	54.5
The Lion King (Large Format)	BV	.60 (9,320)	-34%	66	9.5
The Wild Thornberrys	Par	.55 (430)	-59%	1272	38.4
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)		$98.20	-	-	-
% Change (Last Year)-		-23%	-	-	-
% Change (Last Week)-		-15%	-	-	-
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Also Debuting/Expanding