..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

Funny thing about the ebb and flow of economic trends: while all of the wiseguy reporters covering Hollywood are obsessing over a box-office “slump” that may or may not actually exist, the wiseguys covering today’s housing market are taking bets on the exact day, hour and minute when their “balloon” is going to burst … assuming, of course, there’s something there to go, “boom,” in the first place.

Like nature, the media abhor a vacuum. In the absence of any real news that doesn’t involve Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt, Donald Trump or Michael Eisner’s summers as a wee lad, it becomes the obligation of every reporter worth his or her salt to spin odd bits of pop psychology, box-office data and lies told over expense-account dinners at the Grill into trend pieces.

If, on a slow news day, just such a trend piece -- however dubious -- somehow finds traction on the front page of the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or USA Today, it will begin to take on a life of its own, and become accepted as gospel. (When Bernie Weinraub wrote his howlers for the New York Times, editors of lesser journals would routinely ignore their own reporters’ advice and ask for re-writes of the Times version of the non-story). This past Monday, many similarly lead-starved reporters and wire-service editors could hardly contain their glee over being able to declare the slump kaput … at least until the next week’s Sunday-for-Monday deadline.

Given the unsophisticated approach to entertainment news coverage, adopted by the majority of today’s mainstream media brass, why should any working-stiff reporter bother bucking the trend? A Monday without a quote from Paul Dergarabedian, the president of Exhibiter Relations, would be like a Thursday without an e-mail from Moviefone, gushing over the excellence of the coming weekend’s new releases.

To avoid unnecessary brain drain, the Hollywood press corps appears to have adopted the principle forwarded by Maxwell Scott, the reporter in The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance: “This is the west, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.” Had he lived another 100 years, Scott might have added … “ad nausea.”

Don’t take my word for it, though. Listen, instead, to what writer William Goldman -- the first to observe that “nobody knows anything” about the movie business -- told a Writers Guild audience two years ago, two decades after the publication of “Adventures in the Screen Trade.”

“It's as true now as it ever was,” Goldman argued, after being prompted by moderator F.X. Feeney. “One of the great pieces of comedy writing available to Americans today is USA Today or any of the other papers, where we read about why this movie did well and this movie did badly. And, of course, they don't say that on Thursday or Friday because they have no idea. They didn't know that two weeks ago.

“There have been four romantic comedies in the last couple of months that are all gigantic hits, and I don't think any of them were well-reviewed. I don't think anybody saw it coming. I do know that every studio in town must be killing to get lots of romantic comedies going, because that's what people want, except, of course, when they get their’s out, they may all tank.

“Nobody does know anything.”

I include myself among the dunces. This much, however, I do know: those workers and executives struggling through real economic crises -- like the one currently holding the automotive industry in its grip --would kill to be wallowing in a slump like the one afflicting Hollywood.

Not that there aren’t clouds to be found on the horizon. Absent a long-running blockbuster attraction on the scale of a Titanic or Shrek -- or small miracles with long legs, such as My Big Fat Greek Wedding-- the industry isn’t likely to spike dramatically upward any time soon, either. Again, though, people in Flint and Youngstown would welcome such problems.

Just try explaining the concept of craft services to a laid-off autoworker, or lunch-pail toting brick layer, who’s never gotten as much as Christmas card, let alone a free lunch out of their bosses. One sure indication that Hollywood, indeed, is suffering hideously from an economic slump will come when studio executives are only allowed to expense $20 of their “business“ lunches, and publicity junkets are staged at the Travelodge at Vermont and Sunset (easy access to the Universal Studios, Dodger Stadium, the Hollywood Sign, Walk of Stars and Mann’s Chinese), instead of the Four Seasons.

Until then, kindly shut up.

Monday night, at a special screening of Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith, I was reminded once again about the powerfully magnetic, almost mystical hold movies once had on the American public. It brought me back to a time when I worked in Chicago’s Loop, in an office several floors above one of the city’s historic theaters, and the success of Jaws had yet to change the way studios marketed their products.

The screening was sponsored by USC’s Entertainment Technology Center, as part of its Digital Screening Series. It was held at the ETC’s Digital Cinema Laboratory at the partially renovated Hollywood Pacific Theatre, one of the few venues equipped with a Texas Instrument DLP 2K projector.

Of all the theaters in the world to watch the all-digital/all-the-time Episode III -- outside of Skywalker Ranch, anyway -- the Hollywood Pacific is the one most likely to guarantee an optimum entertainment experience. The absence of a popcorn-popper was a minor bummer, but the giant screen and state-of-the-art sound system more than made up for any hunger pangs.

Putting aside any criticism of the non-technical aspects of the film -- and I had very few -- I found this specific version of Star Wars to be absolutely spectacular. I even felt privileged to have been included on the guest list.

Suddenly, everything about the venerable series seemed new and fresh. The futuristic cityscapes of Coruscant possessed a depth and texture far superior to those displayed in any previous film or digital presentation of the saga, while the mountains, jungles, lakes, waterfalls and sunsets of Kashyyyk and Naboo all practically burst from the screen. Even more awe-inspiring were Mustafar’s lava rivers, which provided a fiery backdrop for the decisive confrontation between Anakin Skywalker and Obi-Wan Kenobi. The heat from the volcanic flows was almost palpable.

I was expecting an entertaining night at the movies, but nothing quite this revelatory. As the closing credits rolled, I couldn’t help but wonder where Hollywood’s economy would be if all movies looked and sounded as terrific as the “Star Wars” I had just witnessed, and, more to the point, if audiences didn’t have to pay a premium for the same privilege.

But, then, I remembered another quote from the movies. You know, Norma Desmond’s response to Joe Gillis’ observation, “You used to be big,” in Sunset Boulevard: “I am big. It's the pictures that got small.”

Or, as Yoda might summarize the current situation, “Special … today’s movie-going experience isn’t.“

Star Wars, like any one of a dozen Hollywood mega-movies released in the last 12 months, cried out to be seen in only the most modern of big-screen venues. Savvy fans, not necessarily those camped out on Hollywood Boulevard, knew to search out one of the 300-plus DLP Cinema theaters worldwide that would present Episode III under near-optimum conditions. Alas, such theaters currently exist in just 22 of this nation’s 50 states.

The sad, unadvertised truth of the matter, though, is that fewer people probably watched Episode III in digitally enhanced theaters than were able to see Episode II under the same conditions.

Despite George Lucas’ threat four years ago, to withhold Attack of the Clones from exhibitors not willing to invest in digital screens, only 94 screens in 17 markets actually were equipped to his satisfaction. It opened on 3,161, instead.

According to Lucasfilm HD Supervisor Fred Meyers, who answered questions between showings of the film Monday night, Episode III probably opened in fewer than that number of digitally equipped theaters. Of the 3,661 screens on which the film opened domestically in May, only about 70 were equipped to show it digitally.

The DLP 2K projector used to display Episode III at the Hollywood Pacific was one generation more advanced than the ones used in those venues. Those who missed out on the complete Sith experience shouldn’t blame Lucas for their loss.

International exhibitors appear to be adopting digital systems at a far faster rate than their North American counterparts. Theater owners here remain locked in a tug of war with distributors over an economic model for upgrading delivery and exhibition systems, even as Texas Instruments is joined in the fray by Sony, with its 4K SXRD device.

"It's amazing how difficult change is, but where there's a will, there's a way," Meyers said. “Digital cinema will catch on once it becomes the brainchild of the people most likely to benefit from the change. And it doesn't have to be difficult to find the expertise for installations."

To that end, projector maker Christie Digital Systems USA joined hands last month with movie distributor Access Integrated Technologies Inc. to form Christie/AIX and help fund the advance of digital cinema. If everything rolls out as planned -- big if -- 2,500 digital screens could be operational in two years.

Along with Technicolor Digital Cinema, Disney, Sony, and Warner also now seem prepared to help fund conversions to the tune of $80,000 per screening room, out of total pool of $3 billion. Other distributors would have to pay a fee to use the digital supply chain.

The indie and documentary crowd, meanwhile, is hoping that Mark Cuban’s plan to install Sony 4K projectors in all 59 of his Landmark Theaters will finally allow audiences to see their digitally created pictures in a totally compatible format. Some fear the plan may be a Trojan horse for a change in exhibition policy at Landmark, but Cuban and his partners at 2929 Entertainment insist they’re in the art-house business for the long haul.

But, wait … there’s more … as Ron Popeil might interject right now.

Last March, Lucas and James Cameron showed up at ShoWest to tout elaborate plans for projects involving advanced digital 3D technology. Lucas announced that he would re-format all of the Star Wars episodes, while Cameron teased exhibitors with news of his upcoming 3D Aliens of the Deep.

"Once we had the entire process in place for digital projection," Meyers told the audience of fellow techies, “we were keenly aware of what we could do with 3-D, and we’ve been actively looking at the possibilities with the Star Wars movies.”

It remains unclear where Lucas will find the venues sufficiently advanced to do justice to his employees’ hard work and vision. Since the target date for launch would coincide with the 30th anniversary of the premiere of the first installment -- or fourth, take your pick -- he’s given himself a bit of a cushion.

Meanwhile, while all of this high-finance stuff is taking shape, other teams of geniuses on the campuses of the major studios seem more concerned with miniaturizing the movie-going experience. It’s as if the disparate units were at war with each other for the soul of the industry.

Ostensibly, all of the energy being expended on solving the broadband riddle is in the service of delivery system that would be more cost-efficient than the ones that already exist, be they in the form of DVDs, VHS, video-rental chains or Netflix-type operations. The studios also have begun to play the “piracy” card, which portends a common international day-and-date release of important titles for personal home use. Thus, exhibitors and retail outlets ultimately can be downsized as players in the economic equation.

The bigger conundrum then becomes: where’s the sense in making bolder, brighter, louder and increasingly more expensive movies for the enjoyment of people sitting in darkened auditoriums, if the real money is expected to come from distributing those same pictures to consumers for use on comparatively tiny monitors in well-lit rooms?

The distribution of video games, music videos, catalogue movies and sporting events presents no such problem. Once the magic of the big-screen genie is allowed to escape from the lantern, will there be anything left for the rest of us to enjoy?

American consumers, at least, have elected not to wait for Hollywood to make up its collective mind. Apparently, they’ve decided to maximize their investments in wide-screen hi-def monitors and 5.1 audio systems -- purchased for the enjoyment of the Olympics and NFL -- by actually staying home and watching movies, too. What, after all, is the point of buying a Cadillac, if you don’t intend on driving it?

Today’s home theaters are every bit as welcoming and dynamic as most mall-based venues, and popcorn, soft drinks and candy get cheaper the further one strays from a multiplex. Moreover, DVDs allow fast-forwarding through commercials and trailers.

Episode III is expected to arrive in stores on Nov. 8, 2005, and Meyers said the DVD version will include all the bells-and-whistles the public now demands. Lucas’ minions are also working on a high-def edition, but, considering the gridlock blocking agreement on a common format, there’s probably no need for them to hurry. (Meyers wouldn’t say which format Lucas was favoring.)

And, of course. this brings us to that other Hollywood boogie man -- or, theory du jour, if you will -- the one that posits a plateauing of DVD sales. Again, it’s a lovely sort of problem to have.

If DVD sales ever do plummet to near-Beta levels of the early ’90s, it only will be because another technology has come around to takes its place … and it ain’t HD-DVD or BluRay. Frankly, I doubt we’ll see any dramatic new advance any time soon … although the TiVo/Netflix download model sounds smarter than anything the Hollywood brain-trust has suggested.

Ironically, content providers will continue to vacation in Hawaii, Cannes and Aspen, while the exhibitors they pretend to embrace at ShoWest are forced to beg for every penny it will cost to compete with the studios’ own home-entertainment divisions. The studios seem not to care particularly how people watch their movies, just as long as the money trail winds through the hills of Hollywood.

Perhaps, if we’re lucky, they’ll subsidize a handful of traditional big-screen theaters -- an Arclight here, a Chinese there -- for the sole purpose of being able to throw their red-carpet wing-dings. The multiplexes ultimately will be turned over to the teenage hordes, who will be able to purchase everything from tickets to popcorn to parking with a credit or debit card, thus eliminating the need for a payroll of more than one or two minimum-wage employees.

Kids … you’ve got to love them. Who else would pay $10 to watch a commercial for the Los Angeles Times’ Calendar section?

July 15 , 2005
- Gary Dretzka